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The news and analysis archive

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The news and analysis archive
Fed talks signal a quarterly rate cut at 25 bps from Sep’24

Fed talks signal a quarterly rate cut at 25 bps from Se...

·         Ahead of the blackout period, comments by Fed’s Waller, Williams, and others signal the start of the next rate cuts cycle from Sep’24 @25 bps for the next 11 QTRs ·      ...

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9
Sep

In the week ahead: U.S. Presidential Debate, U.S CPI an...

The dollar initially weakened on Friday, reaching lows last seen in late August, however, it rebounded later in the day, with the dollar index (USDX) closing 0.11% higher. On Monda...

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Wall Street stumbled on fading hopes of jumbo Fed rate cuts

Wall Street stumbled on fading hopes of jumbo Fed rate ...

·         The Aug’24 US NFP/Job report may be termed as soft, but the overall labor/job market is still robust and Goldilocks in nature ·         The 6MRA of the unemployment rate ...

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6
Sep

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, Key Speec...

The dollar declined for a second consecutive session against most of its major peers on Thursday with the dollar index losing another 0.20%, reestablishing the steep downward trend...

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5
Sep

ADP Non-Farm Employment, US Jobless Claims, ISM Service...

A decline was seen in the dollar against most of its major peers on Wednesday. The dollar index shed 0.46%, reversing its recent gains and reestablishing the steep downward trend t...

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Gold, Dow almost flat after US job data; Fed may cut 25 bps

Gold, Dow almost flat after US job data; Fed may cut 25...

The market was expecting a 50 bps rate cut from Sep’24, but Fed’s Williams made it almost clear that the Fed will stick to a 25 bps cut each QTR end Wall Street Futures were under ...

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Wall Street wobbled amid September Fed rate cut suspense

Wall Street wobbled amid September Fed rate cut suspens...

·         Also, Gold was under stress as the Israeli PM is under huge public pressure for an immediate ceasefire, but recovered on increasing Russia-Ukraine tensions ·         Nvid...

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4
Sep

BOC Rate Statement, JOLTS Job Openings, U.S. Factory Or...

A modest rise was seen in the dollar against most of its major peers on Tuesday, with the dollar index (USDX) adding another 0.12% to its recent gains and hitting a new two-week hi...

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RBI may start cutting rates from Dec’24 if the Fed acts in Sep’24

RBI may start cutting rates from Dec’24 if the Fed acts...

·         But the Fed may not cut from Sep’24 if the August unemployment rate does not further surge above 4.3-4.5% ·         If Fed cuts from Dec’24, then RBI may also cut from Fe...

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3
Sep

Swiss GDP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spe...

The dollar experienced a modest retreat on Monday, with the dollar index (USDX) shedding 0.11% of its recent gains but still hovering right below two-week highs. Investors brace fo...

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2
Sep

In the week ahead: Non-Farm Employment Change, U.S. Une...

The dollar index (USDX) gained for another day against most of its major peers on Friday, with the dollar index adding another 0.30% to end a third consecutive session in green hit...

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30
Aug

U.S Core PCE Price Index, Chicago PMI, UoM Inflation Ex...

The dollar index (USDX) gained for another day against most of its major peers, with the dollar index adding another 0.33% to end Wednesday’s session at 101.33. Gross domestic prod...

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Gold, Wall Street wobbled as US core PCE disinflation stalled

Gold, Wall Street wobbled as US core PCE disinflation s...

·         The pace of disinflation of core PCE slowed down from around -0.16% on average in 2023 to -0.08% in 2024 (till July) ·         The Fed targets +1.5% of core PCE inflation...

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29
Aug

U.S GDP, U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. Pending Home Sales

The dollar index (USDX) gained by 0.51% ending Wednesday’s session at 100.99, having earlier this week touched its lowest point since last year at 100.418. According to reports, th...

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Dow gains on soft landing optimism; NQ slips on Nvidia woes

Dow gains on soft landing optimism; NQ slips on Nvidia ...

·         Overall, Q2CY24 US GDP data shows strong PDFP (core GDP); real GDP for 2024 may grow by around +3.0% against the Fed’s June projection of +2.1% Wall Street Futures stumb...

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Nifty scaled life time high on Fed/RBI pivot optimism; next?

Nifty scaled life time high on Fed/RBI pivot optimism; ...

·         Although for Nifty, NSE shows FY24 and Q1FY25 TTM EPS around 1051 and 1075 respectively, the actual calculated value should be around 856 and 873 ·         At present, Ni...

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28
Aug

U.S Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Waller Speaks

The dollar index (USDX) fell 0.3% to 100.482, having earlier touched its lowest point since last year. In August, the dollar has dropped 2.92%, setting it on track for its largest ...

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Oil stumbled on hopes of progress of Gaza ceasefire talks

Oil stumbled on hopes of progress of Gaza ceasefire tal...

·         But Russia/Putin may soon ensure higher oil ahead of the US election (an advantage for Trump) ·         After Ukraine hit deep inside Russia with US missiles, Russia warn...

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27
Aug

CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index

The US Dollar, as measured by the US Dollar Index (USDX), showed signs of recovery on Monday as it ended the session 0.22% higher. This comes after a sharp decline last week, which...

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Dow and gold surged on Powell Put after a roller coaster move

Dow and gold surged on Powell Put after a roller coaste...

·         Although Powell indicated rate cuts as the next move, Sep’24 is not a done deal till the evaluation of Aug’24 job and inflation data ·         On Friday (Jackson Hole), P...

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