Aug

Weekly Preview: U.S. Core CPI, U.S. Core PPI, U.K. GDP

10/08/2026 - 07:30 UTC

Global financial markets kicked off the week on a firm note as investors processed an unexpected contraction in July’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a development that significantly scaled back market expectations for an impending Federal Reserve rate hike. Despite broader macroeconomic headwinds, major asset classes recorded substantial shifts over the past week: the US Dollar Index (USDX) drifted down -0.39%, whereas spot Gold surged by 7.25%. Meanwhile, Crude Oil tumbled -9.09% over the seven-day stretch despite recent intraday rebounds, even as robust technology momentum propelled Nvidia up 11.57%, Microsoft (MSFT) up 7.57%, and private aerospace giant SpaceX up a dramatic 23%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major peers, traded higher around the 99.70 mark during Asian trading hours on Monday. This bounce allowed the currency to regain lost ground, underpinned by steady safe-haven demand stemming from escalating geopolitical friction across the Middle East. Intense diplomatic pressure and military activity remain centered around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian officials have demanded a complete rollback of US naval blockades and sanctions as a prerequisite for fully reopening the waterway. Flight-to-quality bids for the Dollar were further reinforced by reports of Iran-backed Houthi strikes targeting Saudi Arabia’s Jazan oil refinery. Nevertheless, upside momentum for the Greenback remains capped by signs of cooling in the US labor market. The July NFP report revealed a surprising loss of 23,000 jobs—marking the first monthly employment decline since February—complemented by substantial downward revisions to June's figures, which were slashed from 57,000 to just 20,000. In response, the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a sharp decline in the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, dropping to 46% from 67% just a week ago.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude prices gathered intraday traction on Monday, climbing to four-day highs as traders continued to weigh supply disruption risks tied to the Middle East conflict. Conversely, spot Gold (XAU/USD) traded on a slightly softer note beneath its mid-June peaks, contending with short-term headwinds from elevated oil-driven inflation expectations and a steady US Dollar, though deeper downside remains well-cushioned by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Equity markets in Asia started the week on a predominantly positive note, riding the tailwind of Friday’s record-setting session on Wall Street. Japan and South Korea spearheaded the regional advance as semiconductor and technology shares posted a sharp recovery. In Mainland China, sentiment proved more fragmented, with regional benchmark indexes delivering a mixed performance as technology components diverged. Hong Kong equities managed modest gains, whereas Australian stocks defied the broader regional rally to close lower, albeit with select lithium miners outperforming the market.

Digital asset markets experienced a relatively quiet start to the week, with Bitcoin holding flat around the $65,026 level. The flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation corridor between $62,000 and $65,000, though it nevertheless notched a weekly gain of over 2% as broader risk appetite was refreshed by fading Fed rate hike expectations following the weaker employment data.

Looking ahead, market participants are turning their attention toward a packed schedule of high-profile corporate earnings and critical macroeconomic data. On the corporate front, quarterly results from industry leaders—including Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CoreWeave, Lumentum, Rocket Lab, and Cisco Systems (CSCO)—are set to offer vital barometer readings on enterprise technology spending and the durability of AI infrastructure demand. On the economic agenda, market focus will pivot toward incoming US CPI and PPI prints for fresh signals on the path of inflation, alongside Thursday’s release of monthly UK GDP figures.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD nudges lower toward the 1.1550 level during Monday’s early European session, taking a breath after securing a 0.26% gain over the past week. The shared currency faces mild pressure as the US Dollar rebounds from Friday’s steep sell-off.

The Greenback’s recovery follows a sharp drop at the end of last week, triggered by remarkably weak United States labor market data that forced market participants to aggressively reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report delivered a negative surprise as payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000 against forecasts of an 80,000 expansion.

The softer employment figures have significantly dampened market expectations for near-term Fed policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 46% probability to a September interest rate hike, representing a steep drop from the 67% chance priced in just a week ago.

Looking ahead, market participants are adopting a cautious stance ahead of crucial macroeconomic catalysts. Investors are turning their primary focus toward Wednesday’s release of the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to provide pivotal guidance on inflation dynamics and help clarify the Fed's next policy steps.

Gold

Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest intraday dip to trade near $4,350 heading into Monday’s European session, recovering momentum after securing a stellar 7.25% gain over the past week. Despite the rebound, the precious metal remains slightly below its mid-June highs reached on Friday, which were spurred by a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar following a surprisingly weak monthly US employment report.

The primary catalyst behind bullion's recent surge was July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which unexpectedly revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs alongside substantial downward revisions to June’s figures (slashed from 57,000 to 20,000). The signs of a cooling US labor market significantly dampened expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing strong underlying support for the non-yielding metal.

However, Gold’s immediate upside remains capped as persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to bolster safe-haven demand for the Greenback.

Looking ahead, market participants are turning their focus toward upcoming US inflation data later this week. The incoming CPI and PPI reports are expected to offer critical guidance on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory and provide the next directional impulse for both the US Dollar and Gold.

WTI Oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil gains positive traction to kick off the new week, surging 2.26% on Friday to rebound after tumbling more than 9% over the past week. The US benchmark black liquid touched a four-day high during Monday’s Asian session, though bulls remain cautious, awaiting a sustained move above the $78.00 psychological mark before positioning for further upside.

The intraday recovery comes as market participants weigh ongoing Middle East supply concerns against diplomatic developments regarding the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian officials noted that Oman-mediated discussions toward establishing a safe shipping corridor are making progress, Tehran reiterated strict conditions for a full reopening, including an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, and compensation for war damages.

Adding to regional supply anxieties, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed responsibility for a recent strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. The persistent geopolitical risk premium across the Middle East continues to lend support to Crude Oil prices as markets closely monitor potential energy supply disruptions.

US 500

US stock index futures held in a narrow range during early Monday trade, as investors adopted a cautious stance following a stellar performance last week that saw the S&P 500 advance 3.48%.

Market participants are weighing lingering geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz against upcoming macroeconomic catalysts. Although Iranian officials noted that negotiations regarding new shipping lanes are nearing completion, Tehran continues to demand an end to US sanctions, compensation, and the removal of naval blockades before fully reopening the strategic waterway. Subsequent rebounds in oil prices have re-ignited underlying inflation concerns, complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

The subdued start to the week follows a powerful Friday rally, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched record closing highs after a surprising July US Nonfarm Payrolls drop (-23,000) sharply scaled back Fed rate hike bets. Mega-cap tech names led the charge over the past week, driven by strong momentum in Nvidia (+11.57%), Microsoft (+7.57%), and private aerospace giant SpaceX (+23%).

Looking ahead, market focus turns to Wednesday’s July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases for fresh signals on inflation, alongside Thursday’s UK monthly GDP data. On the corporate front, investors are bracing for quarterly results from tech leaders including Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CoreWeave (CRWV), Lumentum, Rocket Lab, Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Applied Materials (AMAT) to gauge the ongoing strength of enterprise AI infrastructure demand.

Weekly Preview: U.S. Core CPI, U.S. Core PPI, U.K. GDP

EUR/USD

Gold

WTI Oil

US 500

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