How Could US Jobs Data and Major Earnings Move Markets?

Author: Michael Hewson    Date : 3rd of August 2026

There’s been a lot to dissect this past few days, with concerns about an AI bubble pushing the Nasdaq into correction territory, and oil prices rising to their highest levels since May at the end of last week.

The sharp declines in the likes of Samsung and SK Hynix which has seen the Korean Kospi lose over 30% in the past month is certainly causing some concern, however focussing on that rather ignores the fact it is still up over 30% year to date.

The sell-off in SK Hynix, appears to be more to do with its intention to continue spending billions of dollars in capex, than the fact it posted a record jump in profits, as well as record margins. What appears to be happening now is some profit taking, as investors worry about over capacity and the future timeline for any return on investment.    

Despite this ongoing volatility, as investors mull what might happen next with respect to the US and Iran conflict, equity markets have remained remarkably resilient despite the see-sawing nature of oil prices, with European markets, which have lower valuations, edging back towards recent record highs, before pulling back.

Could this resilience in European markets merely be a symptom of the profit taking in the AI trade, as capital is redeployed in cheaper areas of the market. We may well be seeing that in the way the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have recently put in fresh record highs this week, as more UK assets become targets for overseas bids.

The move in oil prices in the past few weeks has also been consequential, from sliding to 4-month lows at the beginning of July, then rallying from $70 to just over $100 in the space of 2-weeks. We’ve since seen a modest retreat to where we are now, making it increasingly difficult to establish any type of baseline when it comes to future price levels.

Key Market Highlights

* US Non-Farm Payrolls are released on 7 August, with 85,000 jobs expected and labour-market
participation remaining a key concern.

* UK manufacturing and services PMIs arrive on 3 and 5 August, with energy costs threatening the recent improvement in activity.

* US ISM reports on 3 and 5 August will show whether price pressures and employment trends changed
after the World Cup.

* HSBC and BP report on 4 August, with credit losses, operating costs, net debt and production
expectations in focus.

* AMD, Western Digital and SanDisk report from 4–5 August as markets assess demand for AI
infrastructure, storage and memory.

* Disney and Uber report on 5 August, with consumer demand, bookings, streaming performance and
macroeconomic uncertainty under scrutiny.

 

Bond markets already appear to be trying to adjust to that with slightly higher long-term yields, with US yields back at levels last seen in January 2025, as investors start to price in the prospect of rate hikes later this year. As we look ahead to August, and this week’s decision to keep rates on hold by the Federal Reserve on a 9-3 margin, the resilience of the US economy is set to remain in focus with the latest US labour market data, along with the continuation of earnings season where we’ll be moving on from the AI hyperscalers to shifting focus back to the storage and memory providers of the AI trade.  

As we look ahead to August, and this week’s decision to keep rates on hold by the Federal Reserve on a 9-3 margin, the resilience of the US economy is set to remain in focus with the latest US labour market data, along with the continuation of earnings season where we’ll be moving on from the AI hyperscalers to shifting focus back to the storage and memory providers of the AI trade.  

What Will the 7 August US Non-Farm Payrolls Report Show?

US Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to increase by 85,000 in July after the previous report showed 57,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.2%.

With Q3 getting under way the recent US payrolls painted a picture of a reasonably robust labour market, although the number of jobs added came in at a lower-than-expected 57k. While this was disappointing, the 3-month average remained in line with the average monthly change over a 12-month period. Headline unemployment came in at 4.2%, a one year low, however this was mainly down to a sharp fall in the participation rate to 61.5%, the lowest level since March 2021. While the slowdown in participation is concerning, there are a number of structural reasons for this, including an aging population, as well as many people retiring earlier post Covid. Looking at other measures relating to the US labour market, hiring patterns look reasonably resilient with weekly jobless claims recently falling to their lowest level since 1969, while the comparable ADP payroll report has also shown similar resilience, with the last 3 months showing hiring trends at their highest levels in 12 months. The main concern as we look towards the July numbers are whether we start to see a slowdown in the wake of the end of the football World Cup as those who were hired to cover that period might be let go. Expectations are for 85k for July.  

Will UK PMIs Confirm an Economic Improvement in July?

UK manufacturing and services activity improved in the July flash surveys, although higher energy prices could increase pressure on business costs.

We saw an improved picture for the UK economy in July if the recent flash PMIs are any guide. This probably has more to do with the World Cup which saw England secure a 3rd place finish along with the extended warm weather that prompted a pickup in spending as a result of extended pub opening hours as service sector activity rebounded from 48.8 to 51.8. Goods producers reported an expansion in production levels with the strongest rate of growth since September 2024, with new work for private sector firms also showing an improvement in July. Manufacturing order books also picked up at the fastest level since February 2022, helped in some part by robust demand from AI supply chain work, as well as new work related to defence spending, which helped the manufacturing sector improve to 52.8 from 52.5 in June. Despite the improvement in both sectors there remained an underlying unease about the wider economic outlook, with the recent increase in energy prices likely to undermine the recent slowing that many businesses have seen in input price inflation.       

 

What Will the 3 and 5 August US ISM Reports Reveal?

The July US ISM reports will indicate whether easing price pressures continued and whether employment weakened after World Cup-related hiring.

One of the more notable trends in recent ISM reports, both manufacturing, as well as services, has been that price pressures have started to slow from their recent peaks back in April. In the manufacturing sector prices paid has seen a slowdown from 84.6 to 73 in June, having started the year at 59. All the while economic activity has remained steady averaging around 53 since the start of the year, slipping from 54 in May to 53.3 in June.  Employment has been the main drag here having last been in expansion territory very briefly in January 2025. The Services sector on the other hand we’ve seen price pressures be more contained albeit from a higher baseline at the start of the year of 66.6. We edged up to 71.3 in May, before moderating slightly to 67.7 in June in the wake of a sharp decline in gasoline prices. Economic activity around business activity as well as employment trends has been more positive however with employment edging up to 51.2 in June after 3 months of contraction in March, April and May. Was this push higher in June prompted by a hiring surge ahead of the World Cup, and could we see it dialled back after the 4th July holiday?

Can HSBC Sustain Its Momentum When It Reports on 4 August?

HSBC enters its second-quarter results with record-high shares, improved revenue and net-interest-income guidance, but higher credit-loss expectations.

The UK and China’s largest bank has performed well this year, the shares moving steadily higher. In their recent Q1 numbers the shares briefly slid after profits came in lower than forecast due to a higher-than-expected provision of $400m in respect of indirect exposure by way of a third party to the collapsed lender Market Financial Solutions. The bank went on to say that it was making provision for up to $1.3bn in respect of credit losses for Q1. Q1 revenues were higher by 6% at $18.6bn, driven by strong performance in wealth management, and Hong Kong business segments. Pre-tax profits fell $100m to $9.4bn. Without the increase in credit losses, as well as higher operating costs of $8.7bn, an increase of $600m, the numbers weren’t actually that bad, which explains the quick rebound, with the UK as well as the Hong Kong bank posting increased profits and revenue. The main drag was (CIB) the Corporate and Institutional banking unit which saw profits dive by 12% to $3.33bn, due to an ECL charge of $679m.  The bank said it was still on track to deliver $1.5bn in annual cost savings by the end of June this year. The bank also upgraded expectations of NII to $46bn, an increase of $1bn. On the downside, expectations on ECL guidance were raised by 5bps to 45bps of average gross loans. The bar is likely to be quite high for the latest Q2 numbers especially since the shares have consistently been trading to new record highs in recent weeks, and have more than doubled in the last 18 months.

What Will BP’s 4 August Results Reveal About Debt and Production?

BP expects lower second-quarter upstream production while management remains focused on reducing net debt and restructuring the company into two divisions.

Incoming CEO Meg O’Neill got an early taste of what to expect from politicians, as well as activist groups in her first earnings call, after the sharp increase in oil and gas prices in the aftermath of the Staits of Hormuz shutdown saw BP post a sharp increase in underlying replacement cost profits to $3.2bn. This sum was over double the amount seen in Q4, as well as the same quarter last year, and prompted the usual howls of outrage from economically semi-literate keyboard warriors, and politicians conveniently forgetting the fact that the UK Treasury takes over 55% in tax from every litre of fuel bought at the pump. While politicians and other opponents of the oil companies chose to focus on that specific headline number, the other reality is that on another measure the $3.8bn profits attributable to BP shareholders seen in Q1, were just about enough to reverse the $3.4bn loss seen in the previous quarter. It was in gas and low carbon energy that the difference was made, with BP showing a profit of $1.1bn, compared to a $2.2bn loss in Q4. Higher refining margins also helped boost the numbers. Away from the political bickering around BP’s profits there was an increase in the company’s net debt to $25.3bn as operating cash flow slipped back, and other operating costs rose by 46% to $7.2bn. Despite the increase in net debt, BP said it was sticking to its pledge to reduce this total to between $14bn and $18bn by 2027. In order to help achieve this O’Neill told BP staff that she intends to restructure the company into two distinct divisions, one focussing on oil and gas production and the other on selling its products and services. BP announced a dividend of 8.32c a share. BP also said it had agreed a deal to sell its Gelsenkirchen refinery. Looking ahead BP said it expects Q2 upstream production to be lower due to maintenance and disruptions in the Middle East. Away from its operational difficulties BP has continued to hog the headlines in terms of its management with chairman Albert Manifold being shown the door on the grounds of overly aggressive behaviour, towards senior and junior members of management. While not condoning bad behaviour, the poor performance in the BP share price over the years does suggest that certain elements of the management could do with being shaken up, and in so doing it would appear that Manifold has done precisely that. For years BP has underperformed due to poor management and it is to his credit that Manifold challenged this in a robust fashion, in looking to raise standards. If certain members of BP management don’t like that then perhaps, they ought to look elsewhere. It’s about time BP started to be run along the lines of its sector peer Shell whose shares traded at record highs earlier this year. BP shares remain well short of their record highs set back in 2006, pre-Deepwater Horizon.  

Can AMD’s Data-Centre Growth Support Its 4 August Results?

AMD expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $11.2 billion, supported by strong demand from AI and data-centre infrastructure investment.

With 2026 being the story of AI and data centre build outs chip makers have led the way when it comes to leading US markets higher. AMD is one such chip maker which has seen its share price more than double year to date. When the company reported in Q1, revenues rose 38% to $10.25bn, while gross margins rose to 53%, an increase of 3%. Net income rose 95% to $1.38bn. The segment performance was very much data centre driven with revenues of $5.8bn, an increase of 57% year on year, while client and gaming revenue rose a more modest 23% to $3.6bn. Since hitting fresh record highs at the end of June of $584, we’ve seen significant intraday volatility, the shares briefly falling to $460 in mid-July. For Q2 expectations for revenue are for $11.2bn, +/- $300m, which would be a circa 46% increase in last year.

Will Disney’s 5 August Results Show Resilient Consumer Demand?

Disney expects total segment operating income of $5.3 billion while monitoring macroeconomic uncertainty and demand across streaming and theme parks.

Saw a decent rally in the Disney share price post their Q2 results after revenue rose 7%, coming in at $25.17bn, with the streaming business performing well, and theme park visitor numbers holding up better than expected. This proved to be the high point of the last few months despite a 7% increase in theme park revenue which was particularly welcome given concerns about a drop off in international visitors. Since those peaks, the shares have slipped back, perhaps due to concerns over its domestic market which saw visitors there decline by 1%. International visitors proved to be more resilient, rising 2%. The entertainment segment also performed well with revenues there rising 10% to $11.7bn, helped by price rises and an 88% increase in Disney+ and Hulu operating income. Margins in the entertainment division improved into double figures and over 10%. On guidance, new CEO Josh D’Amaro outlined annual adjusted EPS growth of 12%, and $8bn of buybacks. For Q3 Disney said they expect total segment operating income of $5.3bn, while mindful of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty which could affect demand. The weakness in the share price since those Q2 results is even more puzzling given that the football World Cup ought to have offered a pickup internationally as visitors looked to fill their time between fixtures.

Can Uber Exceed Its Second-Quarter Guidance on 5 August?

Uber expects gross bookings of $56.25–$57.75 billion and earnings per share of 78–82 cents following strong mobility and delivery growth.

Haven’t seen too much in the way of volatility in Uber shares this past quarter, trading quietly between $67 and $77 a share. We did see a strong rally in the aftermath of their Q1 numbers as revenue rose 14% to $13.2bn, and gross bookings surged 25%, above guidance, to $53.7bn. This also proved to be the high point for the quarter, despite income from operations rising 57% to $1.9bn, however profits fell sharply to $263m due to a $1.5bn write down from revaluations to the company’s equity investments. The revenue share saw both mobility and delivery perform strongly, with delivery seeing a 28% increase in bookings and mobility a 25% increase. That said, on a revenue basis, delivery outperformed, as revenues there rose 34% to over $5bn. For Q2 Uber said it expects gross bookings of $56.25-$57.75bn, an increase of 18-22%, and EPS of 78c to 82c a share. It would be a disappointment if Uber didn’t come in above this, with the World Cup and everything else that has transpired over the last 3 months. As for all of those concerns that we heard at the end of Q4 about autonomous vehicles like Waymo stealing market share were premature, as well as being wide of the mark.  

How Is AI Storage Demand Affecting Western Digital’s Results?

Western Digital expects fourth-quarter revenue of $3.65 billion and earnings per share of $3.25 after strong demand for high-capacity storage.

Western Digital shares have taken off this year, along with a host of other tech companies that have benefitted as a result of the investor appetite for AI infrastructure build out. While the main focus has been on the likes of Nvidia, TSMC, Intel and AMD, and other chip makers, attention has also shifted to the nuts and bolts of the AI rollout, that of the PC and server market. We also shouldn’t forget the companies that provide the components in terms of DRAM, NAND as well as SSD’s and other storage solutions. When Western Digital reported in Q3 revenues rose 45% to $3.34bn, while EPS came in at $2.72 a share. Gross margins rose to 50.5%. The increase in revenue was driven by AI storage demand for high-capacity HDD storage. For Q4 revenues are expected to be $3.65bn and EPS of $3.25 a share

Will SanDisk’s 5 August Results Confirm Strong Memory Demand?

SanDisk expects fourth-quarter revenue of $7.75–$8.25 billion as data-centre, smartphone and PC demand supports its flash-memory business.

One of the best performers, year to date, SanDisk has taken the S&P500 by storm, the shares were over 800% up on the year in June. Trading like a meme stock, posting intraday moves in excess of 5% on a regular basis the company has left its peers in its wake. Spun out of Western Digital back in February 2025, what does SanDisk do that made investors wake up to the attractiveness of the stock, and a company that doesn’t even make semiconductor chips. The answer can be summed up in one word, memory, or to be more accurate, flash memory. From microSD cards, to ordinary SD cards, flash memory for games consoles, USB flash/thumb drives, as well as Internal SSDs and Enterprise SSDs with capacity of over 100TB. It is demand for flash memory that has driven not only a sharp rise in the share price, but also seen a 97% increase in Q3 revenue of $5.95bn at their most recent set of earnings. With demand for AI remaining strong, so will the demand for memory and the fast retrieval of information which flash memory provides. At the data centre end of the market, where the company has increasingly started to gear its business towards revenues increased to $1.5bn, a 233% increase from the previous quarter, and up over 600% on the year. It is here that future growth appears to be focussed towards, along with demand for products geared towards smartphones and PC storage, and it is this that has driven the recent share price surge with the latest Q4 numbers set to be the next key test. Expectations here are for Q4 revenue of between $7.75bn and $8.25bn, and EPS of over $30 a share. With a forward P/E of between 13 and 16 there is no reason to suppose it won't, especially since Nvidia trades much higher than that.

WHAT’S IN FOCUS — SUMMARY

The 7 August US Non-Farm Payrolls report is the dominant scheduled risk event because it will test the resilience of the US labour market after employment growth slowed to 57,000.

An increase of 85,000 jobs is expected for July, while participation, unemployment and possible post-World Cup job losses remain important. UK manufacturing and services PMIs on 3 and 5 August will show whether July’s improvement can withstand higher energy prices. US ISM data will provide another view of price pressures, business activity and employment.

Earnings attention shifts from major AI hyperscalers toward banks, energy, semiconductors, storage and memory. HSBC, BP, AMD, Disney, Uber, Western Digital and SanDisk all report between 4 and 5 August.

What traders are watching: The assets most exposed to the scheduled events include the Nasdaq, US long-term yields, oil, the FTSE 100, the FTSE 250 and shares in the reporting companies.

Scheduled releases can produce sudden volatility, so exposure and position size should be managed around each event.

FAQs

What could move markets when US Non-Farm Payrolls are released on 7 August?

A: The main focus will be whether July employment growth meets the expectation of 85,000 jobs and whether labour-market participation remains weak. A material difference from expectations could affect views on US economic resilience, interest-rate risks, long-term Treasury yields and equity-market sentiment.

Which UK data releases could influence market sentiment from 3–5 August?

A: UK manufacturing and services PMIs are the principal domestic releases on 3 and 5 August. Traders will be watching whether July’s improvement continues and whether rising energy prices begin to reverse the recent moderation in business input-cost pressures.

Q3: What would be important in the July US ISM manufacturing and services reports?

A: The reports will show whether price pressures continued to ease and whether employment remained resilient after World Cup-related hiring. A renewed rise in prices or weaker employment readings could alter expectations around economic growth and possible US rate increases later in 2026.

Q4: What are traders watching in HSBC and BP’s results on 4 August?

A: HSBC’s credit losses, operating costs and net-interest-income guidance are in focus, while BP’s production, operating cash flow, net debt and restructuring plans will receive attention. Both companies enter their reports with demanding market expectations and company-specific operational risks.

Q5: Why are AMD, Western Digital and SanDisk important to the AI investment theme?

A: The three companies provide exposure to different parts of AI infrastructure, including processing, data centres, high-capacity storage and flash memory. Their results may indicate whether strong capital expenditure and demand are translating into sustainable revenue growth across the broader AI supply chain.

Q6: What could influence Disney and Uber shares after their 5 August results?

A: Disney’s streaming income, theme-park demand and operating-income guidance are key, while Uber’s bookings, mobility, delivery revenue and earnings guidance will be assessed. Both reports may also reveal whether World Cup activity and wider consumer demand supported their recent performance.

This material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.