Will Nvidia Beat Its $91bn Q2 Guidance? Jackson Hole Week

Thursday 20 August 2026

Key takeaways

•      Nvidia reports Q2 on Wednesday 26 August, having guided to revenue of $91bn against consensus of $87.2bn.

•      The Jackson Hole symposium runs from Thursday 27 August under new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh, who has ruled out offering forward guidance.

•      The US 30-year Treasury yield has pushed to its highest level since 2007, with UK, French and German long-term yields also at multiyear highs.

•      US Q2 GDP is released on Wednesday 26 August after an initial reading of 1.5%, below Q1's 2.1% and below expectations.

•      US consumer confidence for August lands on Tuesday 25 August, following July retail sales that fell 0.6% — the first decline this year.

•      Best Buy and CrowdStrike both report Q2 this week, on Thursday 27 and Wednesday 26 August respectively.

What's in focus this week

The dominant theme this week is rising long-term Treasury yields moving against softening inflation, with the US 30-year at its highest level since 2007 and UK, French and German long-term yields also at multiyear highs.

Three scheduled events test it. Nvidia reports on Wednesday 26 August against its own $91bn guidance. Jackson Hole opens on Thursday 27 August under a Fed chairman who has ruled out forward guidance. US Q2 GDP arrives the same day as Nvidia, after an initial 1.5% reading that may yet be revised up.

What traders are watching

The assets most exposed are long-dated government bonds across the US, UK, France and Germany, where Treasury yields lead; equity indices near record levels including the S&P 500 after its retreat from 7,800; and the four companies reporting.

Scheduled releases can produce sudden volatility, so consider your own risk tolerance and position sizing around each event. 

Introduction

This week's stock market price action has primarily been driven by movements in bond markets, with rising yields serving to cap recent upside momentum, with the S&P 500 retreating from its recent record highs at 7,800.

The rise in the yields appears all the more counter intuitive given that inflation trends have shown signs of softening when it comes to recent economic data. Earlier this month US core inflation slowed to 2.5% in July, and back to the levels it was at the start of this year, while in Germany and France it has remained steady.

The UK was an outlier largely due to the one-off effect of the increase in the energy price cap, which pushed headline inflation back up to 2.9%, however core prices remained steady at 2.6% and still below the levels they started the year.

Nonetheless bond markets do appear to be less concerned about what inflation is doing now and more concerned about rising deficits, more persistent inflationary pressures, as well as rising corporate issuance, with the US 30-year yield pushing up to its highest level since 2007, pre-financial crisis.

This surge in long term borrowing costs hasn't been confined to the US either, with long term yields in the UK, France and Germany also rising to multiyear highs.

It would appear that somewhat belatedly investors are waking up to the risk that geopolitical uncertainty is likely to become a permanent factor in the weeks and months ahead, and will probably have a more permanent effect on price inflation as we head towards 2027, and beyond.

It is these concerns, along with a big increase in the issuance of long-term corporate bonds for AI build out projects, which is creating a surplus of supply when it comes to bond issuance and as a result appears to be driving yields higher in general, as companies and governments compete against each other on the supply front.

This increase in supply means that investors are becoming much more discerning when it comes to where they do their bond buying. With governments increasingly reluctant to take the more difficult decisions when it comes to spending, as well as on tax, we could well see further upwards pressure on yields as we head into the autumn, as investors continue to look for the best prices.

If this trend of higher yields continues in the face of relatively benign inflation, what does that mean for stock markets at current levels, as we head towards September?

On the earnings front this week the picture for US retail has been an encouraging one, despite the recent awful US retail sales numbers for July, with both Home Depot and Target raising their full year guidance, helped in some part by tariff refunds, but also improvements in same store sales.

With this week's Fed minutes out of the way, attention now turns to the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, and whether events here will offer any signposts for Fed policy over the rest of the year.

The big company event of the week is the latest Q2 earnings from Nvidia with the bar likely to be high on both revenues and profits, as well as guidance for Q3.

What Is the US GDP Growth Rate for Q2 2026?

The initial reading was 1.5%, below Q1's 2.1%, and there is a case for upward revision because Q2 retail sales and hiring were both stronger.

The initial iteration of US Q2 GDP was slightly underwhelming if truth be told, coming in below expectations at 1.5%, below that of Q1 which saw the US economy grow at 2.1%. This weak reading was all the more surprising given that many of the economic indicators in Q2 were much stronger than was the case in Q1. For a start, retail sales from the control group were better in Q2, than was the case in Q1, albeit only modestly. Hiring was also robust with the ADP reports showing consistently decent job gains over the course of the entire first half of the year, with Q2 seeing an acceleration ahead of during the World Cup. As such there is a case for arguing that perhaps we may well see some upward revisions to the Q2 numbers as more data from the quarter becomes available. What the initial numbers did tell us was that investment in equipment was robust, while residential investment rose for the first time in 6 quarters. The main drag proved to be net trade due to a slowdown in exports, while imports were steady.

What Will Kevin Warsh Say in His Jackson Hole Speech?

Less than traders are used to, because the new Fed chairman has been unequivocal that he sees no reason to hold the market's hand on future policy.

Under the previous stewardships of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, the Jackson Hole economic symposium has always been viewed as an important signposting mechanism for future Fed policy over the course of the rest of the year. As we look ahead to the gathering this year, the theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" however any clues as to what to expect from US central bankers is unlikely to be as clear cut. With Kevin Warsh as new Fed chairman he has been quite unequivocal that he sees no reason to hold the markets hand when it comes to signposting the Fed's possible intentions. Some have criticised him for this approach arguing that forward guidance can be a useful tool when it comes to managing market expectations of Fed policy. Of course, the downside to that is that it can create a straitjacket for the Fed if they want to shift on that expectation. You only have to look at what happened here in the UK when Bank of England governor at the time Mark Carney signalled that the next move in rates would be a hike only for that to quickly change when the central bank cut rates. In adopting a less communicative approach Warsh appears to be challenging the market to its job and price risk according to the data without looking to the central bank for its emotional anchor. He has a point, given that many of these risk managers earn more money than God. It's not unreasonable they should start earning it, after all that's why they are paid the big bucks. One thing we may get some detail on is how the various task forces set up by Warsh are progressing as he looks to improve the way the US central bank conducts monetary policy. Many of these are long overdue particularly when it comes to data gathering and dissemination, especially when it comes to inflation targeting where the Fed has missed its target for over 5 years.

Will the US Consumer Confidence Index Fall Again in August?

It has only edged lower so far, slipping to 90.8 from 91.2 despite July retail sales falling 0.6% — the worst monthly performance since May 2025.

Consumer confidence has always been a fickle beast, with different measures telling a different story depending on the demographic of those who are asked. For most of the last few months it has remained reasonably steady, after a poor reading at the start of the year, it has remained in the low 90's, slipping back to 90.8 in July from 91.2 in June. This modest slowdown is all the more surprising given how poor July retail sales were, which saw the first decline this year at -0.6% and the worst monthly performance since May 2025. Was the July decline merely an outlier or symptomatic of something more sinister. If it is, will the August consumer confidence numbers start to reflect that, as the US economy undergoes a post-World Cup hangover? Or will we see a pickup in spending as the school holidays begin as the US driving season goes into full overdrive ahead of September slowdown.

When Is Nvidia Earnings, and Will It Beat Its $91bn Guidance?

Nvidia reports on Wednesday 26 August, and guidance already sits above the $87.2bn consensus, so the question is what number would still move the shares.

Having hit record highs back in May the last 3-months has seen Nvidia shares take a bit of a breather, sliding to 2-month lows at the end of June. The shares also found some modest support at its 200-day SMA at the end of July as the shares sold off on the back of the slide in AI stocks on the back of the collapse of the "Situational Awareness" hedge fund. By and large it's been a difficult few months, share price wise for many of the Mag 7 stocks even as they continue to post impressive numbers on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Beating expectations is no guarantee that you'll see your share price continue to make gains given so much is priced in already. This was no truer in the case of Nvidia in May when we saw a cracking set of Q1 numbers with revenues of $81.6bn, well in excess of the consensus of around $79bn, and up 85% on the previous year. Data centre revenue rose 92% to $75.25bn, helping to grow operating income to $53.78bn, an increase of 147% Y/Y. The only miss was on gross margin which slipped back from Q4 to 74.9%. Net income came in at $58.32bn, an increase of 211% year on year. For Q2 the company was even more bullish saying that they expect to see revenue of $91bn, +/-2%, well above consensus forecasts of $87.2bn. Nvidia also boosted its dividend to 25c a share as well as announcing an $80bn share buyback. Nvidia is undoubtedly doing well, however it is also seeing increased competition and while it is unquestionably the market leader, will it be able to maintain its margins in the face of the likes Amazon and Alphabet who are looking at making their own chips, as well as young upstarts like Cerebras Systems. For a lot of companies beating expectations, and raising guidance is no longer a guarantee of further share price gains, although if we did see quarterly revenue raised to $100bn, that might raise a few eyebrows. We've also seen Nvidia at the forefront of recent collaboration announcements with the likes of LG Electronics, SK Group and SK Hynix. The chip maker also announced that is partnering with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, amongst others to mobilise up to $500bn to help finance large AI factory builds for global enterprises and cloud providers.

Can Best Buy Repeat Q1 When It Reports Q2 on 27 August?

Q1 comparable sales came in at 2% against 1% guidance on the strength of gaming, computing and mobile — the category anecdotally weakest this quarter.

As electrical retailers go, Best Buy is one of the US biggest, however in a market where Amazon and Walmart also operate, however the challenges facing the business are still high. Viewed in the same way as Currys is over in the UK, many of their staff are skilled in terms of their product knowledge, although some client feedback is patchy. Nonetheless the shares didn't have a great start the year, sliding to 1-year lows back in May. The catalyst for the rebound seen since then was a decent set of Q1 numbers with the company reporting a 2% increase in comparable sales, well above the guidance of 1%. Q1 revenues rose to $8.94bn, up from $8.77bn in the same quarter last year, while EPS came in at $1.31 a share, or $276m. The outperformance came from sales in gaming, computing, as well as mobile phones and services. The only downside was a falloff in appliance sales. Despite the better-than-expected results in Q1 Best Buy kept its revenue guidance for the full year unchanged at between $41.2bn and $42.1bn, along with EPS of $6.30 and $6.60 a share. Comparable sales were also left unchanged, between -1% and 1%. As we look towards Q2 the challenge will be repeating that Q1 performance given that anecdotally games sales in Q2 have been struggling. The company could also find it challenging when it comes to its guidance for Q3 and the full year.

Why Have CrowdStrike Shares Doubled Before Its Q2 Earnings Date?

Revenue grew 26% year on year to $1.39bn and Q1 swung to a $27.8m profit from a $104.3m loss, two years after the outage that halved the shares.

Who remembers CrowdStrike? The company behind the widespread global computer outage of Microsoft Operating Systems in 2024, and the faulty update to its Falcon Sensor security software, which caused the largest global outage in the history of IT. Well since then their shares have gone from strength to strength, despite halving in value in the immediate aftermath of the incident. Despite the bad publicity around this incident the shares have gone from strength to strength albeit in a highly volatile environment. In a classic case of not letting a crisis go to waste the company has managed to grow its revenues as well as its profits. When the company reported in Q1 revenues were up by 26% year on year at $1.39bn. Net income came in at $27.8m, comparing well to last year's Q1 loss of $104.3m. With the shares having more than doubled since April this latest reaction could simply be a case of some overdue profit taking, rather than being reflected in a wider change of sentiment. For Q2 CrowdStrike said it expects to see Q2 revenue of $1.44bn while lifting its ARR growth target to between $6.53bn and $6.56bn. CEO George Kurtz also announced the company would be undertaking a 4-1 stock split in July, describing itself as the "picks and shovels of the world's largest technology gold rush of all time". While an apt description it's also important that we not forget what happened in the aftermath of the original gold rush of the American West, when many smaller companies collapsed, consolidated or needed to be recapitalised.

Frequently asked questions

When is Nvidia earnings?

Nvidia reports Q2 results on Wednesday 26 August 2026. The company has guided to revenue of $91bn plus or minus 2%, against consensus of $87.2bn, after Q1 delivered $81.6bn with data centre revenue up 92% year on year.

Will Nvidia beat its $91bn Q2 guidance?

Guidance already sits well above the $87.2bn consensus, so the more useful question is what number still moves the shares. Nvidia also faces competition from Amazon and Alphabet developing their own chips, which is why margins matter as much as the revenue line.

What is the consumer confidence index showing?

US consumer confidence slipped to 90.8 in July from 91.2 in June, holding in the low 90s. That modest move is notable because July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline this year and the worst monthly performance since May 2025.

What happens when bond yields rise?

Rising long-term yields raise borrowing costs and tend to cap equity upside, which is what has driven the S&P 500 back from its record high at 7,800. The US 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest level since 2007, with UK, French and German yields also at multiyear highs.

What is the Jackson Hole symposium and why does it matter?

Jackson Hole is the annual gathering where Fed chairs have historically signposted policy for the rest of the year. This year's theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”, but new chairman Kevin Warsh has explicitly declined to offer forward guidance.

When is CrowdStrike's earnings date?

CrowdStrike reports Q2 on Wednesday 26 August 2026, guiding to revenue of $1.44bn and lifting its ARR growth target to between $6.53bn and $6.56bn. Q1 revenue rose 26% to $1.39bn with net income of $27.8m against a $104.3m loss a year earlier.

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