History of gold trading - Why the gold prices are rising in 2025 

In 2025, gold prices are shattering records time after time in quick succession. In March, gold surpassed the level of $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever, driven by traders’ uncertainty about the trajectory of the economy, especially in a world where tariff-sparked trade wars are reshaping the global landscape. US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies may presage a less globalized economy, where nations are grouped together on different lines, and the feeling is that, at least temporarily, inflation may heat up and slow the economic engines.

Consequently, risk assets like stocks have recorded heavy losses while gold – that famous safe haven destination – has reaped rich gains. 

Why is gold known as a safe haven? - The history of gold 

 Part of the reason gold is viewed as a safe haven is the deep entrenchment of the metal in our cultures as a representation of wealth, which we see in the history of gold trading. Based on archaeological evidence in Bulgaria, people have been mining and trading gold for over six-and-a-half thousand years. Hieroglyphics testify to the metal’s central role in the society of ancient Egypt. Even back then, people had standardized the sizes of gold coins and platelets.   

At the start of the 17th century, the idea of the gold standard was disseminated, although it was only fully accepted in 1870. This meant that the value of fiat currency should be backed by a certain amount of gold. Later on, in 1944, the relationships between national currencies and gold quantities were fixed more exactly with the Bretton Wood Agreement. The US dollar was to be attached to the gold price, and other national currencies would be kept at pre-established exchange rates to the dollar. The end of this system came in 1971, when national currencies including the US dollar were allowed to float independently of the gold price. 

All the while, the yellow metal has appeared in our mind’s eye as the embodiment of wealth, lending its glimmer to our most extravagant jewelry and status items. It hasn’t always increased in value, but there have always been those who believed in it enough to buy it and store it away. Today, it is traded online in the form of exchange-traded funds and mining shares, but also physically, just as it was in old times.  

Why is gold bullish now?

1. Market Momentum 

Gold is not viewed as a risk-on asset, so it wouldn’t normally compete with high-growth instruments like tech stocks. However, in recent months, things have changed dramatically. Looking back from mid-March 2025, gold returns had surged by 50% year-over-year, outdoing not only the S&P 500 index, but also the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, and even Bitcoin. This rate of growth has caught the attention of market speculators searching for elevated gains, who are entering the market in large numbers.  

In the words of Aurorum’s Levi Donahoe, gold prices partially owe their recent upturn to “underlying momentum in the gold price, which is causing speculators to bid the gold price higher for short-term profits”. The more prices go up, the more traders feel they shouldn’t miss out on future gains, convincing them to grab a share in the market.

How high could prices ultimately go? Some analysts give a gold price forecast of between $5,000 and $7,000 an ounce within the next three to five years. 

2. A Preferred Safe Haven 

One of the most popular safe-haven assets in the eyes of fund managers and central bankers is the US Treasury bond. These instruments tend to eat up a substantial portion of funds seeking secure destinations in troubled times. However, in mid-April 2025, the 30-year Treasury yield shot up the most in over four decades, proving that a massive selloff had taken over the bond market. Based on the timing of the data, which aligned with President Trump’s insistent ratcheting of tariffs on Chinese imports, analysts suspected the Chinese government of selling off their Treasury pile. Their aim in doing this could have been to apply upward pressure to US interest rates, which would slow down consumer spending and, with it, the economy.  

Higher interest rates would also complicate the US government’s task of paying off the interest on their $36-trillion debt, which would channel funds away from defence and infrastructure. And indeed, America’s steadily growing debt burden since the year 2000 has been accompanied by a parallel rise in gold prices to the tune of 826%. The more that global traders doubt America’s ability to pay back its debt, the more Treasuries fall out of favour and gold becomes more popular.  

China has consistently been replacing its Treasury notes with gold bars in recent years, so that, as of April 2025, a hefty 8% of their reserves were made up by the precious metal. Data is suggesting that an enormous 700 metric tons of gold entered China between 2023 and 2025, with much of it ending up in central bank coffers. China, then, has been driving bond prices lower while pushing gold prices higher. Partially as a result of this, gold has taken the crown as the preferred safe haven destination. 

3. Market Uncertainty 

On April 22nd, 2025, gold prices surged past the barrier of $3,500 per ounce and the immediate trigger appeared to be President Trump’s criticism of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, for holding interest rates too high for too long. ING wrote that the market was worried about “Fed independence” in the face of pressure from the White House. Simultaneously with the gold surge came a plunge in US equities, proving traders were in risk-off mood. That mood had a lot to do with a bleak report published by the Philadelphia Fed the previous week on business confidence among manufacturers, which exacerbated pessimistic feelings about the economy. The late flight from dollar-denominated assets had also been weighing on the US dollar, which added to the appeal of gold, since it’s priced in dollar terms.  

Trump’s remarks about Powell impacted gold so markedly because they added another layer of uncertainty to the US economic scenario. Below that layer, there were several others too, including the raging battles in the Middle East and Ukraine, neither of which appeared to be close to a resolution. Besides this, there was reason to expect China to take advantage of instability in US markets and politics by invading Taiwan. Although many analysts have their eyes set on 2027 as the year for a potential attack, people like Admiral Mike Gilday of the US navy believe it could come at any time. All of these factors are making our economic world a very unpredictable place, and this is one of the key reasons why the gold price is rising. 

Is the gold price expected to rise?

The history of gold shows that it has been a symbol of security for thousands of years, and today's financial climate only reinforces its traditional role. In 2025, the combination of heightened geopolitical tensions, concerns about economic stability, and a shift in safe haven preferences have all fueled why gold prices are rising so sharply. 

While no forecast is ever guaranteed, many analysts believe that the current momentum could carry gold even higher in the years ahead. As central banks diversify their reserves, investors seek shelter from market volatility, and questions about debt and inflation persist, gold’s relevance remains as strong as ever. Traders and investors alike are turning to this ancient asset not just because of tradition, but because of its enduring ability to shine brightest in times of uncertainty. 

For those considering their next move in trading, understanding the gold price forecast and the factors driving today’s surge can provide valuable insight into the opportunities—and the risks—that lie ahead.