Will oil surge after US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities?

·       Although both Israel and the US are now ready for de-escalation, Iran may not give up easily due to domestic political compulsion

·       The US has to provide Iran some ‘opportunity’ to fire missiles into some ‘abandoned’ US military assets in the Middle East so that Iran can ‘celebrate’ (like in 2020 during the Solemani killing episode)

·       Lingering Iran war uncertainty may not be positive for risk assets (stocks) despite the market taking the US strike as one & done for the end of the Iran war and initial rally.

·       Oil may surge, even if Iran does not try to block the Strait of Hormuz for its oil trading interest with China, but alternative rail transportation may be leveraged.

·       Trump may lose focus on the trade/tariff war due to the Iran war; potentially higher oil and tariff uncertainty may make the Fed’s job more difficult.

On late Saturday (UST) June 21, 2025, after days of back & forth, the U.S. military conducted the expected strikes on the primary suspected Iranian nuke site—Fordow—using B-2 stealth bombers to deploy GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, commonly known as "bunker busters." These 30,000-pound bombs were targeted primarily at the heavily fortified Fordow facility, buried deep under a mountain, which is believed to be a key site for Iran’s nuclear program.

In addition to the B-2 stealth bombers deploying GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs, the U.S. Navy also fired approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran’s other suspected main nuke sites—Natanz and Isfahan—on June 22, 2025. These missiles, launched from Navy submarines and possibly surface ships, targeted infrastructure supporting Iran’s nuclear program. The combined operation aimed to disrupt Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, with Fordow’s deeply buried facility being a primary focus. While U.S. officials, including President Trump, claimed significant damage, the full extent of the strikes’ impact on Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains uncertain, and Iran has threatened retaliation.

President Trump described the strikes as a “spectacular military success,” claiming the facilities were “completely obliterated.” The operation marked a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, with the U.S. directly joining Israel’s efforts to disrupt Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Iranian media reported no signs of contamination at the sites, and Iran’s president warned of potential retaliation. The strikes involved multiple B-2 bombers and, in some cases, Navy submarines launching Tomahawk missiles.

The move has sparked debate, with some U.S. lawmakers arguing it violated constitutional requirements for congressional approval. The operation’s success in fully neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear, as Fordow’s deep underground structure may require multiple strikes to be fully disabled, and some experts suggest even the MOP may not guarantee destruction. Also, Iran’s top leadership said shortly after the Bunker Busting Bomb (BBB) attack that the US attack was well anticipated in the last few days and Iran had already shifted all the nuclear materials long ago to elsewhere; no real damage to Iran’s nuclear research and capabilities. Iran also claimed not to stop their ‘peaceful’ nuclear activities.

Trump posted on his Truth soon after the Fordow in a war-mongering fashion and warned Iran of dire consequences if it tries to retaliate:

·       We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran's airspace. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is no other military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

·       I will be giving an Address to the Nation at 10:00 P.M., at the White House, regarding our very successful military operation in Iran. This is a HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!

·       ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT. THANK YOU! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

Transcript of Trump’s speech after US strikes on Iran:

“A short time ago, the US military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this destructive enterprise.

Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.

Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace.

If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.

For 40 years, Iran has been saying, “Death to America, death to Israel”. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs – that was their specialty.

We lost over a thousand people, and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate, in particular, so many were killed by their general, Qassem Suleiman.

I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.

I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.

I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they’ve done and, most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.

Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that’s so.

I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan “Razin” Caine – spectacular general – and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.

With all of that being said, this cannot continue.

There will be either peace or there will be a tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.

Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all by far, and perhaps the most lethal, but if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed, and skill.

Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.

No military in the world could have done what we did tonight, not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.

Tomorrow, General Caine, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will have a press conference at 8 am [12:00 GMT] at the Pentagon, and I want to just thank everybody and, in particular, God.

I want to just say: “We love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them.” God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel, and God bless America.”

Israel’s stance:

On the U.S. Strikes and Israel’s Role: PM Netanyahu confirmed that Israel informed the U.S. in advance about its planned strikes on Iran, which began on June 13, 2025, targeting nuclear facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. In a video statement, he said, “They [the U.S.] knew about the attack. What will they do now? I leave that to President Trump.” He emphasized that Israel’s operation, dubbed “Rising Lion,” was coordinated with the U.S. to some extent, though the U.S. initially described Israel’s actions as unilateral.

On the Objective of the Strikes: Netanyahu described the attacks as targeting “the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. He stated, “We will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapon,” highlighting Israel’s long-standing policy to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat.

On the Impact of the Strikes: Following Israel’s initial wave of attacks, Netanyahu claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back “by a very long time.” He reiterated this after subsequent strikes, noting that Israel’s actions had destroyed significant portions of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz and parts of other facilities.

On Iran’s Retaliation: Addressing Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel, which killed civilians and damaged infrastructure, including a hospital, Netanyahu contrasted Israel’s precision strikes with Iran’s actions. He said, “We are hitting with precision the targets of the nuclear and missile programs, and they’re hitting the children’s ward of a hospital. That tells you everything.”

On Iran’s Leadership: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Netanyahu suggested that no one in Iran’s regime, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, should be immune. He remarked, “Actions should speak louder than words,” when asked about threats against Khamenei, indicating a willingness to target Iran’s top leadership to end the conflict.

On Diplomacy and U.S. Involvement: While supportive of U.S. strikes using bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk missiles, Netanyahu expressed skepticism about diplomatic solutions. He had previously insisted that any nuclear deal with Iran must dismantle “all of the infrastructure” of its nuclear facilities, a stance that clashed with U.S. efforts to negotiate with Tehran. He noted that Israel’s strikes could “create the conditions for a long-term deal, led by the United States,” but maintained that military action was necessary.

These comments reflect Netanyahu’s aggressive stance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions, his coordination with the U.S. on military actions, and his determination to continue operations despite international calls for de-escalation. His statements also underscore Israel’s view of Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, justifying both Israel’s and the U.S.’s strikes on June 22, 2025.

Highlights of Israeli PM Netanyahu’s comments after the US BBB strike on Iran’s suspected nuke facilities:

·       A short time ago, in full coordination between me and President Trump, and full operational coordination between the [Israeli army] and the United States military, the United States attacked Iran’s three nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

·       In doing so, the United States continued, with greater intensity and with great force, the attacks of the [Israeli army] and the Mossad on Iran’s nuclear program. This program threatened our very existence and also endangered the peace of the entire world.

·       Congratulations, President Trump. Your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history.

·       In Operation Rising Lion, Israel has done truly amazing things. But in tonight’s action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, America has been truly unsurpassed. It has done what no other country on earth could do. History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.

·       President Trump and I often say: ‘Peace through strength’

·       First comes strength, then comes peace

·       And tonight, President Trump and the United States acted with a lot of strength

·       My promise to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities has been fulfilled

·       At the beginning of the operation, I promised you that Iran’s nuclear facilities would be destroyed, one way or another. This promise was kept

·       President Trump called him immediately after the US operation was finished

·       He congratulated me, he congratulated our army and he congratulated our people; I also did the same

·       President Trump is leading the free world with strength. He is a great friend of Israel, a friend like no other.

Iran’s immediate response after US strikes on its three nuclear facilities: Following the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—on June 22, 2025, using six B-2 stealth bombers with GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs and around 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles, Iran’s response was multifaceted, combining official statements, military actions, and domestic measures.

Iran’s Foreign Minister’s Response: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the U.S. attacks as “outrageous” and stated that they targeted “peaceful nuclear installations,” warning that the strikes would have “everlasting consequences.” He emphasized that Iran “reserves all options” for retaliation, signaling a broad range of potential responses, from military to diplomatic actions:

·       The United States, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the NPT by attacking Iran's peaceful nuclear installations.

·       The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. Every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior.

·       Following the UN Charter and its provisions allowing a legitimate response in self-defense, Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.

·       America acted to save the PM of the Zionist regime.

·       The attack last night was a big murder.

·       I will have serious consultations with Putin.

·       I am going to Moscow this afternoon and will meet Putin tomorrow morning.

·       NPT failed to protect us. This is a serious challenge.

·       They support Israel doing its "dirty job" and they claim that Israel is defending itself. It is a shame.

·       America and Israel crossed a major red line by attacking our nuclear facilities.

·       The U.S. only understands the language of threats and force.

·       I don't know how much room is left for diplomacy.

·       It is irrelevant to ask Iran to return to diplomacy.

·       It was not Iran but the US who betrayed diplomacy.

·       Tehran reserves all options to defend its security, interests, and people.

·       Tehran will continue to defend its sovereignty and people.

·       President Trump has betrayed not only Iran but deceived his nation.

·       Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy.

·       This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy.

·       What conclusion would you draw?

·       To Britain and the EU High Rep, it is Iran that must "return" to the table. But how can Iran return to something it never left, let alone blow up?

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said “The US has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran” after America attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic:

·       The world must not forget that it was the United States — during an ongoing diplomatic process — that betrayed diplomacy by supporting the aggressive actions of the genocidal and lawless Israeli regime

·       Now, by completing the chain of violations and crimes committed by the Zionist regime, the US has launched a dangerous war against Iran

·       The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its right to resist with full force against US military aggression and the crimes committed by this rogue regime, and to defend Iran’s security and national interests.

·       The warmongering U.S. government will be responsible for very dangerous consequences for its aggression against Iran.

·       The US attack on nuclear facilities showed that they were also involved in planning Israel's initial attack on Iran.

Iranian Supreme Leader’s Position: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has not issued a public statement immediately following the strikes, as he was reportedly in a bunker with limited electronic communication to avoid assassination risks. This absence of a direct address has left Iran’s definitive response unclear, but before the strikes, Khamenei warned that U.S. military involvement would result in “irreparable damage” to the U.S.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): The IRGC, Iran’s main military branch, declared, “War starts right now,” signaling a strong intent to retaliate. This statement reflects the regime’s view of the U.S. strikes as a direct attack on Iran’s sovereignty and survival:

·       Any move to target Khamenei would close the door to any agreement or negotiation and would lead to an "unlimited" response.

·       Operation True Promise 3 will continue.

·       America has placed itself on the front line of aggression by targeting our peaceful nuclear facilities.

·       We have identified the takeoff locations of the aircraft involved in the attack on the country's facilities, and they have been placed under surveillance.

·       The spread of US bases in the region is not a point of strength but rather increases the likelihood of its exposure to danger.

·       US attack violates the UN Charter, international law, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

·       Iran's indigenous and peaceful nuclear technology will not be destroyed by any attack.

·       We have not yet fully deployed our missile capabilities into battle.

·       Key parts of Iran's armed forces' capabilities have yet to be activated.

Iranian Nuclear Agency’s Assurance: Iran’s atomic agency acknowledged the attacks but denied significant damage, stating there were “no signs of contamination” at the targeted sites. The agency vowed to continue Iran’s nuclear program, asserting its peaceful nature despite U.S. and Israeli claims:

·       Most of the highly enriched uranium at Fordow was moved to an undeclared location before the US attack. The number of personnel at Fordow was reduced to a minimum.

Iranian Military and Retaliatory Actions

Missile Barrage on Israel: Within hours of the U.S. strikes, Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles and drones targeting central and northern Israel, wounding at least 20 people, according to Israeli paramedics. Impact sites included Haifa and near Tel Aviv, with footage showing significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. The missile attack targeted Ben Gurion Airport, biological investigation centers, and command and control facilities. This followed earlier Iranian attacks in response to Israel’s strikes starting June 13, 2025, indicating a continuation of tit-for-tat escalation.

Iran claims it fired largest missile yet, with a 1,500-kilogram warhead, in latest barrage: The Khorramshahr-4 has the heaviest payload of Iran’s ballistic missile fleet, which analysts say may be designed to keep the weapon under a 2,000-kilometer range limit imposed by the country’s supreme leader. Iran says the missile has a 2,000-kilometer range with a 1,500-kilogram warhead.

Potential for Further Iranian Retaliation: U.S. and Israeli officials anticipate Iran may target U.S. military bases in the Middle East, with Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh previously warning that “all U.S. bases are within our reach.” Iran possesses a substantial arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, capable of striking U.S. bases in Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. A prominent adviser to Khamenei also called for missile strikes on U.S. Navy ships and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, though no such actions have been confirmed yet.

Proxy Involvement: Iran’s network of proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, could be mobilized. The Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree pledged attacks on U.S. ships in the Red Sea if the U.S. intervened, despite a prior ceasefire. Iran’s history of asymmetric tactics, such as the 1983 Hezbollah bombings in Beirut, raises concerns about proxy-led attacks on U.S. or allied targets.

Air Defense Activation: Local Fars News, linked to the IRGC, reported that air defense systems in Isfahan and Kashan were activated to counter the U.S. strikes, with explosions heard simultaneously. This indicates Iran’s attempt to mitigate damage during the attack, though the effectiveness remains unclear.

Retaliation Options: Iran faces a dilemma: a weak response could undermine the regime’s credibility domestically, while a strong retaliation risks further U.S. or Israeli escalation. Options include immediate missile strikes on U.S. bases, delayed surprise attacks, or targeting regional allies perceived as aiding the U.S. Closing the Strait of Hormuz remains a high-risk option that could disrupt global oil supplies.

Nuclear Program Continuity: Despite the strikes, some experts and also Iranian leadership said Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed away, and the regime could rebuild its program. The extent of damage to Fordow, which is deeply buried, is debated, with some suggesting multiple strikes may have completed the destruction.

Iran’s senior official/MP:

·       Fordow ‘evacuated, has not suffered irreversible damage

·       Iran had been anticipating the US attack on Fordow

·       The site has long been evacuated and has not suffered any irreversible damage in the attack

·       Two things are certain: First, knowledge cannot be bombed, and second, the gambler will lose this time

·       The attack on the underground nuclear site was superficial

·       Based on accurate information, I state that contrary to the claims of the lying US President, the Fordow nuclear facility has not been seriously damaged, and most of what was damaged was only on the ground, which can be restored.

·       There has been no detected leakage of radioactive material after the US strikes.

Previous Diplomatic Posture: Before the strikes, Foreign Minister Araghchi signaled openness to diplomacy, meeting European officials in Geneva and expressing readiness for talks. However, the U.S. strikes likely closed this window. Iran’s leadership now views the conflict as a fight for regime survival.

Broader Implications: Iran’s response reflects a balancing act between projecting strength and avoiding a full-scale war with the U.S. and Israel. The missile strikes on Israel demonstrate immediate defiance, while the lack of confirmed attacks on U.S. targets suggests caution, possibly due to the overwhelming U.S. military advantage. The regime’s focus on denying significant damage and arresting suspected collaborators indicates efforts to maintain domestic control. However, the IRGC’s “war starts now” rhetoric and threats from Khamenei and Araghchi underscore the potential for further escalation, particularly if Iran perceives its survival as threatened. The situation remains volatile, with Iran’s next moves likely dependent on the assessed damage to its nuclear sites and domestic pressures.

Russian Foreign Ministry Condemnation: Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing the U.S. strikes as “unlawful and destabilizing,” describing them as a “dangerous escalation” that violates international law and threatens Middle East stability. The ministry accused the U.S. of undermining diplomatic efforts to resolve tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, echoing earlier sentiments from June 19, 2025, when it criticized Israel’s initial strikes as “cynical. President Putin, on June 21, 2025, had previously stated that Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found “no evidence” of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, a position he used to challenge the justification for Israeli and U.S. strikes.

Despite a strategic partnership signed with Iran in January 2025, Russia has no mutual defense obligation and is unlikely to intervene militarily. Russia, strained by its war in Ukraine, is cautious about direct involvement but may provide behind-the-scenes support to Iran, such as intelligence or diplomatic backing. Russia is navigating a delicate balance, aiming to appear cooperative with the U.S. while avoiding alienating Iran. Moscow’s condemnation of the strikes aligns with its support for Iran, but its restrained response reflects limited leverage and a desire to avoid entanglement in a U.S.-Iran conflict. U.S. strikes benefit Russia by diverting global attention from the Ukraine war. The conflict has sidelined U.S. focus on Ukraine, with Trump canceling a June 17, 2025, meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky to address the Middle East crisis.

The Iran war led to a 15% increase in Russian oil prices, providing an economic boost to Moscow amidst Western sanctions; additional benefits, including increased Chinese demand for Russian oil due to disruptions in Iranian supply and a potential reallocation of U.S. military resources away from Ukraine.

Putin’s earlier offer to mediate between Iran and the U.S., made during a June 2025 call with Trump, was rebuffed when Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Russia’s condemnation of the strikes suggests it may continue to position itself as a diplomatic broker, though its influence remains limited. Some critics pointed out Russia’s perceived hypocrisy, amid its condemnation of strikes on Iran while conducting nightly bombings in Ukraine.

Russia's Medvedev:

·       What did the Americans achieve with their night strike on three points in Iran? The critical infrastructure of the nuclear cycle was not damaged or was damaged insignificantly.

·       There are countries ready to transfer nuclear weapons to Iran.

·       Trump, who came in as a peacemaker President, has started a new war for the United States.

On Sunday, June 22, Iran foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed he’ll travel to Russia to meet with President Putin on Monday after the US struck Iranian nuclear sites: “We enjoy a strategic partnership and we always consult with each other and coordinate our positions”.

Overall, Russia condemned the U.S. strikes as destabilizing, warned of catastrophic risks, and used the event to underscore its nuclear deterrence strategy, while avoiding direct military involvement and capitalizing on economic and geopolitical distractions. The response reflects a cautious yet opportunistic approach, balancing support for Iran with broader strategic interests.

Russia’s balanced response aligns with its strategic partnership with Iran, signed in January 2025, which deepened economic and military ties but stopped short of a defense pact. Moscow’s cautious approach reflects its resource constraints in Ukraine and its desire to improve relations with the U.S. However, the U.S. strikes have likely hardened Russia’s stance against Western military interventions, reinforcing its narrative of U.S. aggression and bolstering its nuclear deterrence rhetoric. The economic benefits from rising oil prices and reduced focus on Ukraine provide short-term advantages, but Russia remains wary of a broader Middle East conflict that could destabilize its regional influence.

European reactions were varied, reflecting a mix of concern, calls for restraint, and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the escalating Israel-Iran conflict.

European Union (EU): The EU, through its foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, expressed deep alarm, urging all parties to show restraint, respect international law, and prioritize nuclear safety. A statement emphasized the civilian toll and called for a return to the negotiating table to avoid further escalation. This followed a high-stakes meeting in Geneva on June 21, 2025, where European foreign ministers pressed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for curbs on Tehran’s nuclear program, but no breakthrough was achieved.

European leaders urge restraint and diplomacy. European Council President Antonio Costa has urged “respect for international law and nuclear safety. “Diplomacy remains the only way to bring peace and security to the Middle East region. Too many civilians will once again be the victims of a further escalation—I am alarmed by the latest developments.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (VDL) tweeted:

·       Iran must never acquire the bomb.

·       With tensions in the Middle East at a new peak, stability must be the priority.

·       And respect for international law is critical.

·       Now is the moment for Iran to engage in a credible diplomatic solution.

·       The negotiating table is the only place to end this crisis.

Germany: German Chancellor Merz called on Iran to immediately re-enter nuclear talks with the US so there can be a diplomatic solution, according to a spokesperson.

France: France’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement noting “concern” over the U.S. strikes, emphasizing the need to avoid actions that endanger nuclear safety and regional stability. It reiterated calls for all parties to exercise restraint and pursue diplomacy, reflecting France’s overall role in prior nuclear talks with Iran.

France’s Macron convenes emergency meeting after US attack: President Emmanuel Macron will convene an emergency cabinet meeting to assess developments in the Middle East following US air strikes on Iran. Macron has spoken with several leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and plans to hold additional discussions with European and regional leaders throughout the day, the French presidency said in a statement. France is taking all necessary measures to expedite the evacuation of its citizens wishing to leave Iran and Israel, it added.

United Kingdom (UK): UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took a more supportive tone toward the U.S. strikes compared to other European leaders, describing the Middle East situation as “volatile” but prioritizing regional stability. He called on Iran to resume negotiations for a diplomatic solution, aligning with efforts by the E3; i.e., UK, France, and Germany, to engage Tehran. However, Iran’s Araghchi rebuffed this, questioning how Iran could “return” to talks it had not abandoned.

The British PM Starmer tweeted:

·       Iran’s nuclear program is a grave threat to international security.

·       Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.

·       The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, and stability in the region is a priority.

·       We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.

European foreign ministers met with Iran’s Araghchi in Geneva on June 21, 2025, to urge nuclear concessions, but the talks failed to yield progress. The U.S. strikes hours later underscored the collapse of this diplomatic effort, prompting European frustration over the shift to military action. Trump was not happy at all as Iran approached the E3 on June 21 instead of him for a reconciliation of the Nuclear Deal 2.0 and de-escalation of the Iran-Israel mini-war. The EU, particularly France, Germany, and the UK (E3), has been committed to reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the U.S. abandoned in 2018 under Trump 1.0. The strikes were seen as further jeopardizing the prospects of restoring the deal, with Europe caught between supporting U.S.-Israel security concerns and advocating for diplomacy with Iran and ensuring energy security from the Middle East.

The EU may be the biggest loser in terms of oil & gas (fossil fuel energy) for the Ukraine and Iran war. The US may be the biggest beneficiary as it’s the largest producer of oil & gas, and also military hardware & software. Europe’s influence and the response reveal its “fundamental irrelevance” in the Middle East and also global power dynamics compared to the U.S. and growing China. Europe, sensitive to energy markets, faced concerns over oil price spikes. The EU’s economic vulnerability to Middle East instability amplified its push for de-escalation to mitigate inflationary pressures. Trump is creating an unfavorable geopolitical situation for the EU, so it is forced to buy more oil & gas from the US.

China’s reaction to the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities was marked by sharp condemnation and calls for de-escalation, reflecting its strategic partnership with Iran and broader geopolitical concerns. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson strongly condemned the U.S. strikes, describing them as a “dangerous escalation” that violates the UN Charter and international law. The ministry accused the U.S. of exacerbating tensions in the Middle East, stating that the attacks “push the region further toward the abyss.” Beijing urged all parties, “Israel in particular,” to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible to avoid further instability.

China’s state-run media, such as China Daily and CGTN, echoed the government’s stance, labeling the U.S. actions “reckless” and a threat to regional and global stability. They emphasized that the strikes undermined diplomatic efforts and risked a broader conflict, aligning with China’s narrative of opposing unilateral U.S. military interventions.

China’s strategic partnership with Iran, strengthened by a 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, underpins its response. As Iran’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its oil, China has a vested interest in Iran’s stability. China might support Iran in a “war of attrition” against the U.S. and Israel, potentially through arms or economic aid, though direct military involvement was deemed unlikely.

Previously China reiterated its support for diplomatic solutions, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi previously condemning attacks on nuclear facilities as setting a “dangerous precedent.” Beijing called for all parties to return to negotiations, though Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that the U.S. strikes left “little room for diplomacy.”

Opposition to U.S. Unilateralism & Hegemony: China framed the U.S. strikes as an example of American overreach; the Iran Nuclear attacks could weaken the U.S.’s global position if it becomes entangled in a prolonged conflict. This aligns with China’s broader narrative of challenging U.S. dominance, particularly in regions where it seeks influence, like the Middle East.

Energy/Oil security: China, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, expressed concern about potential disruptions, especially if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 25% of global oil shipments pass. This economic risk amplified China’s calls for de-escalation. China warned that the U.S. strikes could lead to catastrophic consequences, including a wider Middle East conflict that disrupts global energy markets and regional stability. This aligns with its broader foreign policy of advocating for non-interference and sovereignty.

The strikes were seen as a signal to China, Russia, and North Korea, demonstrating the U.S. capability to “destroy targets that threaten” its interests. China’s condemnation reflects its concern that such actions could embolden U.S. interventions elsewhere, potentially affecting its strategic interests.

China’s Strategic Concerns and Context:

·       Dependence on the Strait: China imports significant oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar; out of these, apart from Russia, all Gulf oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz; cumulative oil exports are almost 20 mbpd.

·       Geopolitical Tensions: The June 13, 2025, Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s declaration that U.S. nuclear talks are “meaningless” heighten the risk of escalation. Iran has threatened to disrupt the Strait in past conflicts (e.g., 2019, 2024), though it has never fully closed it due to economic self-interest and China’s reliance on its oil.

·       China’s Objectives: Beijing seeks to reduce vulnerability to U.S./NATO naval dominance, which could enforce a blockade via the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and agreements with regional partners like Iran and Oman enhance its control over alternative routes.

·       Existing and Planned Alternate Oil Shipment Routes: China has been diversifying oil import routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on overland pipelines, rail lines, alternative sea routes, and strategic ports. These efforts are part of its broader energy security strategy and BRI.

Other media reports:

·       Israeli officials secretly lean toward ending the attack on Iran after the US attack on its nuclear facilities

·       Iran intends to carry out surprise operations against Israel while continuing to monitor US bases in the region

·       Israelis estimate that the Natanz reactor has been destroyed, pending confirmation regarding the Fordow and Isfahan facilities- Israeli Channel 12

·       It is believed that the enriched uranium was in Natanz and Isfahan, and the vast majority of it was not smuggled out of the sites and was therefore there at the time of the attack.

·       If the uranium was not destroyed, the nuclear program would go back years. If it were destroyed, the nuclear program would be eliminated.

·       The Israeli Air Force has so far completed more than 1,000 strike sorties throughout Iran involving hundreds of aircraft.

·       More than 200 surface-to-surface missile launchers have been taken out of service.

·       A senior U.S. official acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordow did not destroy the facility but severely damaged it- NYT

·       The US is preparing for the possibility of retaliation from Iran, and the next 48 hours will be particularly worrisome- US officials to NBC.

·       Iranian parliament approves closure of Strait of Hormuz, the final decision to be made by security authorities- Al Arabiya.

·       Macron asked the Iranian president for the resumption of diplomatic discussions.

·       Trump approved strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in a Wednesday meeting with advisers- The Atlantic.

·       His remarks on Thursday about a negotiating window were a deliberate deception and a smokescreen.

US VP JD Vance:

·       I don't fear that this is going to become a protracted conflict

·       The US does not want a regime change in Iran

·       We can have a good relationship with the Iranians

·       We're not at war with Iran. We're at war with Iran's nuclear program

·       We have no interest in boots on the ground

US Defense Secretary Hegseth/Chief of Staff

·       There needs to be a negotiated settlement. Iran needs to understand that

·       This is not open-ended. This was a focused mission on nuclear capabilities

·       We believe we have destroyed the capabilities of the Fordow nuclear facility

·       This mission was not and is not about regime change. This was a precision strike

·       Any Iranian strike would be a poor choice

·       This was the largest B-2 operational strike in US history

·       All three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction

·       Iran's fighters did not fly. Iran's SAMs did not see us. We retained the element of surprise

·       We used 14 MOPs on Iranian targets

·       No shots were fired at the US strike package in Iran

·       The bombers deployed over the Pacific yesterday were a "decoy," part of a deception effort known only to a small number of planners

·       Name of the US attack on Iran last night: Operation Midnight Hammer

·       This was the first usage of MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator)

·       We have devastated the Iranian nuclear program

·       Trump seeks peace. Iran should take that

·       American deterrence is back

·       The operation did not target Iranian troops or people

US Secretary of State Rubio:

·       The US is prepared to talk to Iran

·       We are not looking for a war in Iran. Regime change is not our goal

·       China Involved in Iran

·       Rubio encourages China to contact Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz

·       Iran had all the necessary ingredients to manufacture a nuclear weapon, but now not have as many

·       Iran exposed, unable to defend its leaders

·       There are no planned military operations against Iran right now

·       Why does Iran have a space program? Are they going to the moon? No. They are trying to build an ICBM so they can put a warhead on it

·       Rubio doubts Iran moved anything out of Fordow before the strike

·       No planned military operation against Iran currently

·       Closing Strait of Hormuz Would Impact US, More on World

Conclusions

As per reports, the US has reached out to Iran soon after the nuke strike to convey that it was targeted without any human casualties and not intended for any regime change. Overall, satellite images days before the attack may also indicate that Iran transferred any suspected nuke materials well in advance in anticipation of such a US-Israel attack. Iran also filled up the entry of the Fordow nuclear facility with earth materials to minimize the impact of any MOP bombing.

All these indicate that the US-Israel has carried out the Iranian Nuclear facility strike with advance intimation to Iran directly/indirectly to minimize the overall impact and manage domestic political compulsion for all the stakeholders. Iran-Israel may continue the mini-war for the time being, while the US may even allow Iran to take calculated revenge on some of its insignificant military assets in the Middle East as we have seen in the previous occasion, when Iran’s Suleiman was killed during Trump 1.0, so that Iran’s present political leadership may also manage domestic political compulsion.

Iran now holds the key to de-escalation, as the Israeli PM has already declared his aim to destroy Iran’s suspected nuke facility. But Iran may not give up easily, at least for the next few weeks. In that scenario, if the Israel-Iran war continues for a few weeks/months, then Israel may run out of its stockpile of interceptor missiles in the face of a barrage of Iranian missiles. And speedy replacement of such interceptor missiles by Israel/US may not be possible due to China’s monopoly and export restrictions/controls of military-grade rare earth materials. Thus, unofficially, China holds the ‘Trump Card’ for this ‘war of attrition’, if it lingers beyond some weeks amid Iran nuke phobia by both Israel and the US.

Potential market impact:

Lingering geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to Gaza and the Iran war may not be good for risk assets (stocks); oil may surge further even if Iran does not block the Strait of Hormuz for China’s interest. Gold and USD will gain as a haven asset. Higher oil prices may be a headache for the Fed for imminent rate cuts; Trump may also not be able to focus too much on major trade deals and extend the tariff pause at least till December’25. All these may create uncertainties, and the market generally hates such policy uncertainties. On the positive side, initially, the market may assume the US strike on Iran’s suspected nuke facilities is one & done, and thus risk assets may also rally to some extent and vice versa.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, Gold, Silver and Oil

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 42600) now has to sustain over 43000-43100 for a further rally towards 43200/43600*-44000/45300 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 42900-42800, DJ-30 may again fall to 41900/41700-41400/41000* and further 40600/40100-39200/38000 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (21900) has to sustain over 22400-22500 for a further rally to 22700/23000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 21900, NQ-100 may again fall to 21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days.

Technically Gold (CMP: 3350) has to sustain over 3375-3395 for a further rally to 3405/3425*-3450/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3365, Gold may again fall to 3340/3320-3300/3280 and 3255/3225-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.

Whatever may be the narrative, Technically Oil (78.00) now has to sustain over 81.00 for any further rally to 85.00/88.00-90.00/91.00-95.00; otherwise sustaining below 80.50/80.00-77.50/75.00, may fall to 69.00/67.00-65.00/64.00 and further fall to 62.00/60.00-57.00/55.00 in the coming days.