Gold, Stocks wobbled on Trump’s flip-flops on Iran mini war

·       Trump may be trying for last-minute diplomacy with Iran before going to destroy Iran’s suspected underground nuke facilities with a bunker-busting bomb 

·       Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7 meeting in Canada and the ‘Tehran evacuation’ Truth late Monday created panic selling in the Wall Street

·       Although Iran is now blinking fast and offering a ceasefire, Israel is not ready for the same before Iran’s regime change and full destruction of suspected nuke facilities

US stock futures fell sharply, and Oil, Gold, and even USD jumped Friday, June 13, 2025, following Israel's preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s drone/missile retaliation followed by Israel’s retaliation escalating regional (Middle East) tensions. The US-assisted Israeli strikes, aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, were planned to force Iran to provide big concessions to Trump in the nuclear deal or risk further devastation.

The Israel-Iran escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a surge in oil prices, with WTI crude rising nearly 9% to above $74 per barrel and Brent crude spiking over 12%. This heightened fears of potential disruptions to global oil supplies, contributing to a risk-off mood in markets; Gold jumped on escalating geopolitical tensions; along with USD as haven assets during wartime. The escalation in the Middle East, combined with ongoing trade policy uncertainty, has increased market volatility.

The ongoing mini-war between Israel and Iran, escalating significantly in the last few days, has intensified regional tensions and impacted global financial markets. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," a large-scale aerial assault targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including the Natanz nuclear site. The strikes killed senior Iranian military officials, including Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami, and nuclear scientists, and caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that only above-ground facilities at Natanz were hit, with no radiation leakage reported from the deep underground core nuclear (uranium enrichment) facilities.

Iran responded with a barrage of missiles and drone attacks on Israeli military bases and cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa, starting June 13 and continuing into June 15. A second wave of missile strikes on June 15 hit a residential street in Haifa, injuring nine people, and caused significant civilian casualties in Iran, with 224 reported deaths, 90% civilians, including 60 in a single apartment block strike. Iran has vowed further retaliation, with its military urging Israeli civilians to evacuate ‘vital areas’.

Overall, till June 15, as per an Israeli source, Iran may have fired at least 350 missiles toward Israel, almost 10% of Iran’s missile arsenal. Despite Iran’s robust Iron Dome missile defense system, around 10 Iranian missiles were able to hit Israel, causing meaningful civilian damage and public panic, something which is also prompting Israel's political & military leadership to target top Iranian counterparts.

So far it seems that Israel is dominating Iran, with IDF claiming dull control of Tehran’s airspace deep inside Iran. The IDF is also targeting Iran’s Foreign Ministry building and even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s location, prompting him to hide behind a bunker. Israel reportedly warned Khamenei but stopped short of killing him because Trump is not ready at this point for any attempt at regime change in Iran, which may make Iran more risky, especially in terms of nuclear issues.

Iran canceled planned nuclear negotiations with the U.S. scheduled for June 15, citing it as ‘meaningless’ amid ongoing Israeli attacks. The U.S., under President Trump, has urged de-escalation but vetoed an Israeli plan to target Iran’s Supreme Leader. Iran has signaled a willingness to reciprocate if Israel halts attacks, but distrust persists due to U.S. involvement in prior deceptions. Israel is not ready for any ceasefire at this moment as it’s in an advantageous position and also not sure whether it’s able to destroy Iran’s suspected nuke capabilities (Uranium enrichment).

Iran may be seeking an immediate face-saving ceasefire with Israel.

As per reports, Iran may give up Uranium enrichment if it finds a 'face-saving' solution. The Iranian government and military leadership are ready to reach a nuclear deal with the US and give up the uranium enrichment program if they find "a face-saving solution," a senior Iranian diplomat told on June 16: "The real priority of the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] and our government is survival. The ongoing cycle of attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran will inevitably weaken our military, security forces, economy, public morale, and ultimately, the government---the Iranian military will lose control of the situation---Tehran does not want to repeat Saddam Hussein’s mistake. US President Trump "may be the only person who can bring the Israel-Iran conflict to an end---Iranian leadership is ready to negotiate a real deal now."

But Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Pakpour also clarified on June 15:

·       Even if Israeli attacks stop, we will carry on until the end

·       Iran has targeted key areas of Israel and strikes will continue

·       We will cause Israel a bitter and painful fate with huge and destructive consequences (after his predecessor, Hossein Salami, was killed in an Israeli strike on June 13)

·       Iranian Advisor to Revolutionary Guards Commander: We are ready for a long war and haven't yet made strategic use of our missile capabilities

Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel is on its way to end Iran's nuclear threat:

·       Israel is working toward the objective of eliminating Iran's nuclear threat

·        The air force has achieved control over the airspace above the Iranian capital, Tehran

·       The military is taking action in Iran (after first warning residents to evacuate)

·       Israel is also moving along to cripple the Iranian missile capabilities

·       Israel is on the way to destroying Iran's nuclear and missile threats.

·       We are telling the citizens of Tehran: ‘evacuate’, and we are taking action

·       American pilots are shooting down drones headed toward Israel

·       Netanyahu asked about a report that Trump vetoed the Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader: I'm not going to get into that.

·       We have started a wave of strikes against dozens of surface-to-surface missile targets in western Iran.

·       We don't rule out assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei

·       Killing Iran's Supreme Leader would end the conflict

A WSJ report published on June 16, 2025, indicates Iran is actively seeking de-escalation in its conflict with Israel and is open to resuming nuclear negotiations. This aligns with earlier reports from IranWire about Iran’s willingness to abandon uranium enrichment for a "face-saving" solution and PM Netanyahu’s assessment that Israel is very near to achieving its objective to end Iran’s perpetual nuke threat.

WSJ Citing Officials:

·       Iran signals it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel

·       Iran stated privately it will resume nuclear talks if the US stays out of the fight

·       Iran asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to ask Trump to press Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire

·       Iran asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman to ask Trump to press Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran to offer flexibility in nuclear negotiations with the US.

Iran’s Push for De-escalation:

Iran is "urgently signaling" a desire to end hostilities and resume nuclear talks, according to Middle Eastern and European officials cited by the WSJ. Tehran has communicated through Arab intermediaries that it is open to negotiations, provided the U.S. refrains from military involvement. Iran also sent messages to Israel, emphasizing mutual interest in not containing the cycle of missile strikes on each other and violence contained.

Trump posted on his Truth late June 15, urging for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war:

·       Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP! Also, during my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were going at it hot and heavy, as they have for many decades, and this long-time conflict was ready to break out into WAR. I stopped it (Biden has hurt the longer-term prospects with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it, again!). Another case is that of Egypt and Ethiopia, whose dispute over a massive dam is affecting the magnificent Nile River. There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way! Likewise, we will have PEACE soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings are now taking place. I do a lot and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!

·       Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,” IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

·       AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

Late June 16, Trump caused panic on Wall Street and global media after he issued the ‘Tehran evacuation’ post on Truth. This follows Trump’s one-day early abrupt leave of G7 summit from Canada:

·       Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and a waste of human life. Simply stated, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!

·       Publicity-seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned

·       I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!

This warning, issued during the G7 summit, followed Israel’s evacuation orders for parts of Tehran ahead of planned strikes on “military infrastructure.” The post heightened tensions and sparked speculation about U.S. involvement, though U.S. officials clarified no offensive actions were planned.In a follow-up post, Trump criticized former Fox News host Tucker Carlson for opposing his support for Israel’s campaign, saying, “Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen.”.

Since June 16, 2025, Trump has made several statements regarding Iran, primarily centered on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, Iran’s nuclear program, and the need for a diplomatic resolution. His comments reflect a mix of pressure on Iran to negotiate, support for Israel’s military actions, and a focus on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

June 16, 2025 – G7 Summit, Canada: On Iran’s Desire for De-escalation: Trump stated that Iran wants to “talk” about de-escalation, saying, “They’d like to talk, but they should have done that before. I had 60 days, and they had 60 days. And on the 61st day, I said, ‘We don’t have a deal.’ It’s painful for both parties, but I’d say Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk, and they should talk immediately before it’s too late.” He declined to elaborate on potential U.S. military involvement, saying, “I don’t want to talk about that.”

Support for Israel’s Campaign, ensuring no wider Middle East conflict: Trump described Israel’s strikes as “excellent” and suggested they could pressure Iran back to the negotiating table. He expressed hope for a deal but noted, “Sometimes they have to fight it out, but we’re going to see what happens.

On Nuclear Deal Prospects: At a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump reiterated his belief that a nuclear deal with Iran could still be signed, saying, “I think a deal will be signed,” and called Iran “foolish” for not agreeing earlier.

June 16, 2025 – Comments on U.S. Role: When questioned about U.S. military involvement, Trump emphasized preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, stating, “I want to see no nuclear weapon in Iran, and we’re well on our way to making sure that happens.” He was evasive about U.S. military plans, saying, “It’s irrelevant. Something’s going to happen.” Trump suggested Iran was “basically at the negotiating table,” hinting at ongoing diplomatic efforts without providing details.

June 17, 2025 – Post-G7 Departure: Aboard Air Force One, Trump clarified his Tehran evacuation warning, saying, “I want people to be safe… That’s always possible; something could happen. I just want people to be safe.” He denied French President Emmanuel Macron’s claim that he left the G7 early to work on a ceasefire, insisting his departure was for “much bigger” reasons and calling Macron “publicity-seeking”. Trump stated he was not pursuing a ceasefire but seeking a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear program, demanding a “complete give-up” by Iran. He indicated he might send senior U.S. officials to meet with Iranian counterparts, suggesting active diplomatic efforts.

In response to speculation about his motives, Trump posted on Truth Social on June 17, denying outreach to Iran for “Peace Talks,” saying, “This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!”

June 17, 2025 – Additional Remarks: Trump told reporters he had spoken to “everybody” about the conflict and claimed Israel was “doing very well.” He referenced a 60-day ultimatum he gave Iran to halt uranium enrichment, which expired without a deal and predicted, “Something’s going to happen.” He expressed reluctance to negotiate directly, saying, “I have no desire to negotiate with Iran. I expect nothing less than their complete [surrender on nuclear ambitions],” indicating a hardline stance.

Trump’s Sudden G7 Departure and Tehran Evacuation Warning: Trump abruptly announced he would leave the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, a day early, shortly after his Truth Social post urging Tehran residents to “immediately evacuate.” The White House cited the escalating Middle East conflict as the reason, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating, “Because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State.” Trump himself told reporters, “I have to be back as soon as I can,” and later, “You probably see what I see, and I have to be back early”.

Tehran Evacuation Warning: Trump’s call for Tehran’s 10-17 million residents to evacuate followed Israel’s evacuation orders for northern Tehran’s District 3, targeting “military infrastructure.” The warning, posted at the G7 summit, caused panic and heavy traffic in Tehran, with residents questioning the feasibility of evacuating such a large population. Iranian state media reported explosions and air defense activity shortly after

Speculation and Denials: French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Trump’s departure was to work on a ceasefire, saying, “There is an offer that has been made, especially to have a ceasefire and to initiate broader discussions.” Trump refuted this, denying ceasefire talks and criticizing Macron. U.S. officials, including White House spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer, clarified that U.S. forces remained in a “defensive posture” and were not joining Israel’s offensive.

Diplomatic Efforts: Despite denying ceasefire talks, Trump directed his team, including Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, to explore meetings with Iranian officials to test Iran’s seriousness about diplomacy. Reports suggest Iran, via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, has sought U.S. intervention to secure a ceasefire, offering flexibility in nuclear talks.

National Security Response: Trump convened a National Security Council meeting upon returning to Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials involved. The U.S. deployed additional defensive capabilities to the Middle East, including aircraft to Europe, to protect U.S. interests.

Iran war Escalation continues: Trump’s comments and departure coincided with intensified Israel-Iran hostilities, entering their 5th day on June 17. Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” (started June 13) targeted Iran’s nuclear and military sites, killing 224, mostly civilians, while Iran’s missile and drone attacks killed 24 Israelis. Israel expanded strikes to Iranian state media and Quds Force sites, while Iran launched “more powerful” missile waves.

U.S. Stance: Trump’s evacuation warning and hardline rhetoric suggest a strategy to pressure Iran into negotiations, while his refusal to join Israel’s offensive keeps the U.S. in a defensive role. His veto of an Israeli plan to target Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, indicates a desire to avoid full-scale escalation.

Market Sentiment: Trump’s evacuation warning caused a temporary spike in volatility, but his subsequent diplomatic signals (e.g., envoy meetings) and Iran’s ceasefire requests have tempered fears. Trump’s escalation of rhetoric heightened inflation fears, as oil price spikes threaten global price stability. A potential deal, signaled by Iran’s outreach and Trump’s diplomatic efforts, could ease these pressures, supporting central banks’ rate cut plans from September 2025. Oil-importing economies like India face risks, but de-escalation could stabilize currencies and corporate earnings.

Since June 13, 2025, Trump has emphasized preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, supported Israel’s campaign, and pressured Iran to negotiate, culminating in his dramatic Tehran evacuation warning on Truth Social. His abrupt G7 departure on June 16, citing Middle East developments, underscored the crisis’s urgency, though he denied pursuing a ceasefire, focusing instead on a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear ambition.

Wall Street remains volatile amid ongoing missile exchanges, Iran’s de-escalation signals, and Trump’s diplomatic efforts with a Gun on Iran. Trump may have departed early from the G7 meeting abruptly due to his pro-Russia/Putin and anti-Democrat comments, which were indirectly opposed by Canadian PM Carney and French President Macron, as the G7 is not the right platform to make such comments. Overall, Trump may have left the G7 Canada due to his growing differences over Russia/Putin and Israel-Iran policy, and subsequent humiliation.

Israel is now trying to end Iran's mini-war and prefers a ceasefire only after ensuring full destruction of Iran’s suspected Uranium enrichment facilities at the deeply underground nuclear facilities. But for this, Israel needs US special bunker-busting big bombs with B2 bomber planes. Trump may be planning some last-minute diplomacy with Iran for the nuclear deal as plan ‘A’, or fully destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with the bunker-busting bomb.

Conclusions

Considering Iran’s limited military & economic capabilities against Israel/US's extensive war machine, Iran may not be able to fight with Israel for long and thus is now blinking. As per reports, the White House is preparing a special situation room to destroy Iran’s suspected nuke facilities and may also allow IDF/Mossad to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khomeini to end the Iran war shortly.

The US is using Israel as a proxy in the Middle East to maintain US supremacy and petrodollar hegemony to limit China’s growing influence in the region. The US and Russia are the biggest beneficiaries of never-ending global geopolitical tensions (war) led by the Middle East, and the Ukraine war, as the US is the biggest producer of military equipment and oil, followed by Russia. China is now also challenging the US, Russia, and Europe in terms of arms exports. And Europe may be the biggest loser in terms of higher oil prices and its oil import dependency.

China and Russia may easily form a NATO-like front within BRICS to avoid war with each other, but that would be a big blow to the global defense industry led by the US, Russia, Europe, and China. China is now fast-chasing challenging US/Europe and Russia duopoly in the global defense industry through its efficient manufacturing and innovation capabilities. China may soon overtake the US and Europe in terms of defense exports due to scale and cost-effectiveness (almost 50% lower cost).

Market Impact

Wall Street Futures slipped, while Gold and oil surged early Tuesday, June 17, 2025, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic data (retail sales). This followed a volatile Monday on hopes & hypes of an early Iran war ceasefire amid unconfirmed reports of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. Trump’s abrupt G7 departure and hardline stance on Iran’s nuclear program heightened market volatility, though Iran’s reported willingness to negotiate offers hope for de-escalation.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, Gold and Silver

Looking ahead, whatever the fundamental narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 42600) now has to sustain over 42900 for a further rally towards 43200/43600*-44000/45300 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 42800, DJ-30 may again fall to 41900/41700-41400/41000* and further 40600/40100-39200/38000 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (21600) has to sustain over 22000 for a further rally to 22400/22500-22700/23000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 21900, NQ-100 may again fall to 21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days.

Technically Gold (CMP: 3350) has to sustain over 3375-3395 for a further rally to 3405/3425*-3450/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3365, Gold may again fall to 3340/3320-3300/3280 and 3255/3225-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.

Also, technically, Silver (CMP: 36.50) has to sustain over 38.00 for a further rally to 40.00/45.00-49.00/50.00 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 37.00, Silver may again fall to 36.00/34.50-32.00/31.50 and 31.00-30.50 in the coming days.

Also, technically, Silver (CMP: 36.50) has to sustain over 38.00 for a further rally to 40.00/45.00-49.00/50.00 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 37.00, Silver may again fall to 36.00/34.50-32.00/31.50 and 31.00-30.50 in the coming days.