flg-icon English (India)

In the week ahead: U.S. Core CPI, U.K. GDP, U.S. Core Retail Sales

calendar 11/03/2024 - 08:44 UTC

The dollar traded between gains and losses against most major currencies on Friday, with the dollar index (USDX) ending the session almost unchanged, while on the weekly chart, a decline of more than 1% could be seen. Pressure on the dollar came initially from comments by Fed’s chairman Powell, reaffirming the possibility of at a rate cut as soon as June, while NFP numbers coming out on Friday displayed some resilience in the employment sector. According to the report, payrolls rose by 275,000 jobs last month, the labor department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months.

The CME Fedwatch tool indicates that bets for the first rate cut in 2024 to take place in the June FOMC meeting remain elevated at 57.2%.

In other news, Gold prices trade steadily right below recently reached record highs of $2,195.4 per ounce with investors focus most likely turned towards the upcoming U.S. monthly CPI numbers for more hints as to the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut.

Wall Street took a breather on Friday, with all three main stock indices ending slightly in the negative, following fresh record highs reached earlier in the day by the US 30 and the US 500. According to reports, the move was partly attributed to some profit-taking in the technology sector, especially in NVIDIA Corporation, that ended Friday almost 5.6% lower.

In company news, several key market players will announce their Q4 earnings reports this week, among which are asana Oracle, Lufax, MINISO, ZIM, UiPath, Dollar General, Hello Group, Weibo, Adobe and FiVe BELoW.

In the spotlight for this week are the U.S. monthly and annual CPI and Core CPI numbers due on Tuesday, U.K. GDP data on Wednesday and U.S. core retail sales and jobless claims due on Thursday.


The EUR/USD pair found some room on the top end on Friday, climbing to a fresh high for the week but got pulled down after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disinflationary wage data and a surprise rise in the Unemployment Rate in February.

Whilst the headline NFP figure showed the economy adding 275K jobs in February, which was higher than the 200K expected, the other data in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report suggested weaknesses in the labor market.

European final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures broadly came in at expectations, and markets will be pivoting to face next Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints for both the US and the euro area.



Gold prices surged to another record high on Friday as data showing a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate boosted expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates soon.

Gold reached an all-time high after a report showed a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate and a moderation in wage gains despite job growth acceleration in February.

Traders boosted bets the Fed could start cutting interest rates in May to around 30% after the jobs report, although June remained the mostly likely scenario at 73%



Oil prices closed more than 1% lower on Friday and fell even more for the week as markets remained wary of soft Chinese demand even as producer group OPEC+ extended supply cuts.

China's imports of crude oil rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period in 2023, but they were also weaker than the preceding months, data showed on Thursday, continuing a trend of softening purchases by the world's biggest buyer.

On the supply side, OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter.


US 500

U.S. main indexes ended the week with losses, on an abrupt halt in Nvidia's record run and a mixed labor market report showing that more jobs were created in February, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up as layoffs picked up pace last month.

At the close in NYSE on Friday, the US 500 declined 0.62% while the US 30 fell 0.14% and the US Tech 100 declined 1.24%.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February, increasing from a downwardly revised total of 229,000 in January.

The better-than-expected jobs added last month kept a lid on wage growth, while unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up.

Costco stock fell 7% after the big-box retailer reported second-quarter revenue that missed expectations as demand for higher-priced items was dented by a more cost-conscious consumer. On the other hand, GAP climbed over 8% after the fashion retailer beat fourth-quarter expectations.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

Want to learn more about CFD trading?

Join iFOREX to get an education package and start taking advantage of market opportunities.

A beginner's e-book A beginner's e-book
$5,000 practice demo account< $5,000 practice demo account
A 12-part video course A 12-part video course
Register now