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14
Jul

USDX Rebounds; Banks Report Earnings; Bitcoin New ATH

calendar 14/07/2025 - 07:27 UTC

The US Dollar Index (USDX) staged a significant rebound last week, ending 0.92% higher on the iFOREX platform, and continuing to push higher on Monday. This resurgence, reversing two consecutive weekly declines, was primarily driven by renewed attention on the trade front as President Donald Trump intensified his stance on tariffs.

Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea will take effect on August 1, alongside a new 50% tariff on imported copper, also effective August 1. He further signaled upcoming tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a formal letter detailing proposals for the European Union expected soon. Economists warn these tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures, challenging the Federal Reserve's 'wait-and-see' approach. Despite calls for immediate rate cuts from Trump, the Fed is likely to maintain its policy rate in July, with minutes from the June FOMC meeting indicating ongoing concerns about tariff-driven inflation. However, some Fed officials have expressed openness to lower rates later in the year, acknowledging overall uncertainty. The Dollar's recovery was also supported by solid domestic economic data and higher US Treasury yields.

Most Asian stocks traded within a tight range on Monday as investors absorbed the latest round of U.S. tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. Despite some regional gains, overall sentiment was cautious. Broader Asian markets took a weak lead from Wall Street futures, which fell after Trump announced new 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union, effective August 1.

Chinese stock markets were muted on Monday, despite positive trade data for June. The China SSE and China SZSE indexes were almost unchanged as of 06:47 AM GMT Monday, while the Hong Kong 50 added around 0.43%. Customs data revealed that China's trade balance grew more than expected in June, notably boosted by a recovery in export growth. This trade performance points to sustained economic strength in the second quarter, setting a positive stage for Tuesday's second-quarter GDP release. However, weaker-than-expected import growth in June suggests local demand remains subdued, which could prompt further stimulus measures from Beijing. Investors are also awaiting Tuesday's industrial production and retail sales data for further insights.

Japanese shares showed little movement on Monday, with the Japan 225 adding 0.05% and the Japan 100 gaining 0.32%. This follows extended losses from earlier in the week, following the U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on Japan. Hopes for a trade deal between Tokyo and Washington appear to be waning, contributing to the subdued sentiment in Japanese markets.

Bitcoin hit a new record high of over $122,000 in Asian trading on Monday, buoyed by surging institutional adoption and anticipation for "Crypto Week" in Washington, starting later in the day. The world’s largest cryptocurrency added 2.56% as of 06:54 AM GMT Friday, reaching as high as $122,822 on the iFOREX platform. Japanese hotelier Metaplanet's increased Bitcoin holdings (now the fifth-largest corporate holder) and strong U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows underscore this institutional demand. Investor sentiment is further boosted by the expectation of several landmark crypto bills being debated in the U.S. House of Representatives during "Crypto Week," potentially establishing comprehensive regulatory frameworks. A strategic session by a major Chinese regulator on stablecoin and digital currency policy last week also signaled a potential shift in China's crypto stance. Following Bitcoin's lead, most altcoins also jumped on Wednesday, with Ethereum reaching a five-month high while XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Polygon all saw notable gains, as did meme tokens like Dogecoin and $TRUMP.

U.S. stock index futures fell on Sunday evening amid concerns over trade policy. Beyond this, the market's attention for the upcoming week is primarily on key fundamental releases. A major focus will be the consumer inflation data for June, due on Tuesday. This report will provide crucial insights into pricing trends, particularly regarding any inflationary impact. Concurrently, the second-quarter earnings season is set to commence in earnest on Tuesday. A host of major banks are slated to report, including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), and Citigroup Inc (C). U.S. stock index futures, as reflected by the US 500, the US tech 100, and the US 30, all fell 0.47%, 0.37% and 0.75% respectively on Friday as broader market concerns weighed on sentiment.

Looking ahead, the US Dollar's trajectory will be closely watched next week with the release of the June US Inflation Rate, followed by Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment flash print. Additionally, several Fed officials are expected to offer further insights into their policy views before the pre-meeting blackout period commences ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair registered its first weekly loss in three weeks, ending Friday’s session at 1.1688—down 0.12% on the day and more than 0.70% on the week. The pair’s drop reflects growing bearish momentum as the U.S. dollar surged, marking its strongest weekly performance since March amid a broad risk-off environment.

The dollar’s rally came amid heightened geopolitical and trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump, who signaled plans to expand tariffs. Reports indicate that Trump is preparing to send a formal letter to the European Union as part of his intention to impose blanket tariffs—including on copper exports.

Risk appetite deteriorated following reports of Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. In addition to targeting the EU, he enacted 35% tariffs on Canadian goods and is reportedly considering across-the-board tariffs of 15% to 20% on other trading partners and commodities. This development raised concerns about a renewed escalation of global trade tensions.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) officials offered contrasting views. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel maintained a hawkish stance, stating that the bar for additional rate cuts remains high and that she sees no current evidence of inflation drifting away from the ECB’s 2% target.

EUR/USD

Bitcoin

Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $122,000 during Asian trading on Monday, driven by mounting institutional interest and anticipation surrounding a key regulatory week in Washington.

The latest leg higher in Bitcoin was sparked by Japanese firm Metaplanet Inc.  which announced the acquisition of an additional 797 Bitcoins, boosting its total holdings to 16,352 BTC. The Tokyo-listed company now ranks as the fifth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, further underscoring the trend of institutional adoption.

Bitcoin’s recent momentum follows weeks of robust spot ETF inflows in the U.S., with asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity deepening their exposure to digital assets. Analysts noted that after peaking in late May and experiencing a mild pullback, Bitcoin appears to have exited its corrective phase. They highlighted improving momentum indicators and a rebound in July trading volume, which is on track to match or exceed May’s levels following a quiet June.

Investor optimism is also being fueled by “Crypto Week,” which kicks off Monday in Washington. The U.S. House of Representatives is set to deliberate on a series of high-profile crypto-related bills, including the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

If enacted, these bills could establish long-awaited regulatory clarity around stablecoins, digital asset custody, and the broader digital finance landscape—potentially ushering in a more supportive policy environment for crypto innovation.

Bitcoin

Gold

Gold prices climbed sharply on Friday, gaining close to 1% as market sentiment turned risk-averse amid escalating trade tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The rally comes in response to fresh tariff announcements that rattled global markets. On Thursday, Trump imposed 35% tariffs on Canadian imports, while preserving exemptions for goods compliant with the USMCA trade agreement. In a broader warning, the former president signaled plans to introduce blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on major U.S. trading partners and levies of up to 50% on copper and Brazilian exports.

Gold’s advance was notable as it occurred alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar, which typically exerts downward pressure on bullion.

In an otherwise quiet week for U.S. economic data, attention turned to central bank commentary. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against suggestions that the Fed should ease monetary policy to lower government borrowing costs. He emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and employment, warning that recent trade disruptions have introduced new uncertainty into the economic outlook.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on a packed U.S. data slate next week, including the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims.

This week will also feature multiple Federal Reserve speakers ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period, which begins on July 19.

Gold

US 500

U.S. equities ended lower on Friday, retreating from record highs as renewed trade tensions fueled by President Donald Trump’s latest tariff escalations weighed on investor sentiment.

Trump reignited trade policy uncertainty late Thursday by announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports set to take effect next month. He also floated plans to apply blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most U.S. trading partners, adding to an earlier 50% tariff on Brazilian goods. Markets were further unsettled by the prospect of additional duties on European Union exports, as the bloc braces for formal notice from Washington.

While major indexes slipped, chip giant Nvidia bucked the trend, rising 0.5% to a new all-time high and pushing its market capitalization to $4.02 trillion.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms slid 1.3% after reports suggested the company is unlikely to make additional concessions on its pay-or-consent model, increasing the likelihood of new antitrust action from the European Union.

Investors are now turning their attention to the second-quarter earnings season, with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson among the highlights this week.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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