This website uses cookies and is meant for marketing purposes only.
The USDX is easing to around 99.30 in the early European session on Friday, softening after a strong gain of 0.59% on Thursday that led the index to a two month high. The US dollar is under pressure as the government shutdown enters its tenth day without any sign of a resolution. The ongoing deadlock, which saw the Senate reject funding bills again, is fueling concerns over its economic impact and undermining the currency's near-term outlook. The underlying sentiment remains dovish following Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, which showed that a majority of policymakers supported the September rate cut and signaled further easing this year. New York Fed President John Williams reinforced this view on Thursday, stating he would be comfortable with cutting rates again. Market odds for a 25 basis point rate cut in October remain high at nearly 95%, while the probability for an additional reduction in December has slightly softened to 80%.
Gold maintained a negative bias on Friday, shedding -0.54% on Thursday, as profit-taking intensified following its recent record-setting rally. The precious metal is currently trading above its overnight low near the $4,000 psychological mark. Despite the recent dip, Gold remains on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain, strongly supported by expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Geopolitical risks, amplified by reports of a large-scale Russian assault on Kyiv, are largely offsetting the cautious optimism from the Israel-Hamas peace deal. Traders are now monitoring comments from various FOMC members to gauge the near-term direction
Asian equity markets largely retreated on Friday, tracking overnight declines in the main US equity indices as a prolonged rally in the technology sector paused for profit-taking. Regional sentiment remains cautiously underpinned by persistent bets on an October Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas also providing a degree of risk appetite.
Japanese markets saw a notable decline, with the Japan 225 falling 1.11% and the Japan 100 sliding 1.35% as of 06:34 AM GMT, both pulling back from recent record highs. The indices were pressured by losses in technology stocks, including a fall in SoftBank Group Corp., but were primarily spooked by a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index inflation reading for September. This sticky inflation is viewed as increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider further rate hikes, though the central bank is expected to face resistance from the incoming political leadership, which favors easing policies.
Chinese mainland markets and the Hong Kong 50 index trended lower, with the China SSE down 0.96% and the China SZSE dropping 2.61% as of 06:34 AM GMT. The Hong Kong 50 index also saw a loss of 0.48%, pressured by broad losses in technology shares that mirrored the softness in their US peers. Hong Kong was further weighed down by concerns over US legislative measures, with lawmakers advancing a defense bill that seeks to restrict US investments in sensitive Chinese industries and potentially bar specific Chinese biotech firms from receiving federal funding.
On the last trading session, major Asian chipmakers saw significant gains, with TSMC moving up 1.41%, Samsung Electronics surging 5.24%, and SK Hynix soaring 6.89%. This move came as South Korean markets, resuming trade after a holiday, hit record highs on continued optimism regarding major chip supply deals with the AI industry.
In other news, NVIDIA Corporation stock saw a 1.76% rise on Thursday, defying reports of increased regulatory scrutiny from China. The company's advanced AI chips are facing stricter checks by Chinese customs authorities, who have mobilized teams at major ports to carry out stringent inspections. These checks target both the smuggling of chips that breach U.S. export controls and the official import of NVIDIA's China-specific models (like the H20 and RTX Pro 6000D). Beijing is intensifying efforts to wean local developers off U.S. processors, citing national security concerns, and is ramping up investment in domestic chipmakers such as Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.
Traders are now awaiting further policy cues from speeches by Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem later on Friday, alongside the preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment report.
The euro slipped to an eight-week low near 1.1540 on Thursday, pressured by renewed political uncertainty in France and disappointing German trade data. The EUR/USD ended the session below the 1.1600 level, down more than 0.5%, as the U.S. dollar extended its weekly advance.
Investor sentiment toward the euro deteriorated after French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned, sparking fresh concerns about fiscal policy and government stability. Markets are closely watching whether President Emmanuel Macron can swiftly appoint a successor and rebuild confidence. Lecornu is reportedly continuing discussions with opposition leaders, with a new appointment expected by Friday.
Adding to the euro’s woes, German exports came in below expectations while imports declined sharply, signaling persistent weakness in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
Across the Atlantic the U.S Dollar extended its gains, supported by risk aversion and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its ninth day, has heightened investor concern. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries noted the continued lack of dialogue between Republican and Democratic negotiators.
With political uncertainty in France, weak Eurozone data, and persistent dollar strength, analysts warn the EUR/USD could remain under pressure heading into next week.
Gold prices fell on Thursday, slipping back below the $4,000 per ounce threshold after briefly breaching the record level in the previous session. The retreat came as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors locked in profits following news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose more than 0.5%, hovering near a two-month high. The stronger greenback made dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, adding downward pressure on precious metals.
Moreover, the ceasefire marks the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomatic initiative aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza, a development that briefly cooled safe-haven demand.
Gold’s record-breaking rally earlier this week saw prices hit an all-time high extending a 52% gain year-to-date. The precious metal’s momentum has been underpinned by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank purchases, rising ETF inflows, and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts amid tariff-related economic uncertainty.
Oil prices declined on Thursday after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported crude markets in recent weeks.
The agreement, signed on Thursday, marks the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the conflict in Gaza. Under the deal, hostilities will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will release all remaining hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Earlier in the week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a smaller-than-expected production hike for November, helping to ease concerns about oversupply.
In the U.S., ongoing government shutdown negotiations have stalled in the Senate, with neither Democratic nor Republican funding proposals securing enough support for passage.
With geopolitical risks in the Middle East easing and macroeconomic uncertainties lingering, analysts expect oil prices to remain range-bound in the near term, supported by OPEC+ production discipline but capped by slowing global demand and stronger U.S. supply.
U.S. equities closed lower on Thursday, retreating from record levels as the tech sector paused its recent rally and investors digested comments from Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate outlook alongside the start of the corporate earnings season.
Markets continued to assess minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, which reaffirmed a 25-basis-point rate cut and hinted that further easing may come before year-end. However, it also revealed division among policymakers over how quickly to proceed, with some citing slowing labor market conditions and others warning about persistent inflation pressures.
Adding to uncertainty, an ongoing U.S. government shutdown—now in its second week—has shown little sign of resolution, raising concerns that the release of key economic data could be delayed.
On the earnings front, PepsiCo reported better-than-expected Q3 results, driven by solid demand for healthier beverages and energy drinks. CEO Ramon Laguarta said the company plans to expand product innovation and revamp packaging to appeal to cost-conscious U.S. consumers.
Delta Air Lines also delivered upbeat results, saying the government shutdown has not caused “material impact” on operations. CEO Ed Bastian told the Financial Times that current disruptions are mild compared to those during the 2018–2019 closure. The carrier posted record operating revenue and raised its annual guidance, sending its shares up 4%.
The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.
Join iFOREX to get an education package and start taking advantage of market opportunities.