Markets Weigh Earnings and Jobs Data Ahead of CPI Release

The EUR/USD pair slipped below the 1.1900 mark on Wednesday as the US Dollar regained momentum following a resilient US labor market report. The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the economy added 130,000 jobs in January, underscoring ongoing labor market strength. Private sector hiring remained robust,

In addition, the BLS published its annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls, significantly adjusting prior estimates. The March 2025 payroll figure was revised lower by 898,000 jobs. As a result, total job growth for 2025 now stands at 181,000, sharply reduced from the previously estimated 584,000 — pointing to weaker underlying hiring trends than earlier reported.

Additional pressure on EUR/USD came from hawkish remarks by Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid. He stated that inflation remains elevated and demand continues to outpace supply across much of the economy. Schmid warned that further rate cuts could risk prolonging above-target inflation.

On the European side, the economic calendar was light. However, previous remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggested policymakers remain confident that inflation is under control and are largely dismissive of the Euro’s recent strength — a view consistent with ECB President Christine Lagarrde.

In the Eurozone, markets will monitor speeches from ECB officials Mario Cipollone, Philip Lane, and Joachim Nagel. In the United States, attention will turn to Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending February 7, housing market indicators, and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers Lorie Logan and Stephen Miran.

Gold prices retreated during Thursday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day’s advance that had lifted the metal to a near two-week high. The pullback follows a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Wednesday, which prompted traders to scale back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

Following the release, market participants swiftly adjusted their rate outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see roughly a 95% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its March meeting, up from around 80% the previous day.

At the same time, concerns over potential threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence have weighed on broader Dollar sentiment, helping to limit downside pressure on the non-yielding metal. This dynamic suggests that aggressive bearish positioning in Gold may remain constrained.

Investor attention now shifts to Friday’s US consumer inflation report, which could provide clearer guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory and influence near-term USD demand. In the interim, Thursday’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data may offer short-term trading opportunities.

Overall, while the strong labor data has temporarily capped Gold’s upside, the broader macro backdrop — including expectations of policy easing later in the year and institutional uncertainty — may continue to provide underlying support for the precious metal.

Oil prices moved modestly higher in Asian trading on Thursday as persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran prompted traders to factor in a higher risk premium. However, gains remained limited amid a sharp rise in US crude inventories.

Geopolitical concerns remained a key driver for the market. Reports earlier this week indicated that Washington is considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, heightening concerns about potential escalation in the region. Although US and Iranian officials signaled some progress in talks held over the weekend, no definitive agreement has been reached regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, keeping uncertainty elevated. Additional reports suggested that US authorities are weighing the possibility of seizing oil tankers transporting Iranian crude. Meanwhile, a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered limited clarity on the direction of regional policy. Markets remain wary that any military escalation in the Middle East could disrupt oil production or supply flows from one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions, underpinning prices despite broader headwinds.

Further pressure came from inventory data showing an 8.5 million barrel increase in US crude stockpiles last week — significantly above expectations. The build suggests a partial normalization of supply after severe cold weather earlier in the year disrupted production and tightened inventories.

US equities ended Wednesday’s session on a mixed note, as gains fueled by a stronger-than-expected January jobs report were offset by weakness in financial and communication services stocks.

Stock futures had moved higher ahead of the opening bell following the release of the January nonfarm payrolls report. However, early momentum faded as traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Markets scaled back expectations for near-term rate cuts, prompting a rally in bonds and a recalibration across asset classes.

The strong headline payrolls figure reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance amid still-elevated inflation.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in March climbed to roughly 94%, up from around 80% the previous day. US Treasury yields moved higher following the report. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.172%, while the more rate-sensitive 2-year yield advanced 6 basis points to 3.514%.

In corporate developments, Robinhood fell at the open after reporting earnings that disappointed investors, with softer revenue and user growth weighing on sentiment. Lyft shares also declined after the ride-hailing company posted results that fell short of expectations.

Ford Motor reported quarterly earnings below Wall Street forecasts, citing charges related to its electric vehicle operations, supply chain disruptions, and delays in tariff relief tied to the Trump administration. Despite the miss, Ford projected stronger earnings in 2026, offering some support to its stock.