Markets Eye Jobless Claims, PMI Data as Jackson Hole Begins

The EUR/USD pair traded between gains and losses on Wednesday, ending the session slightly higher after two consecutive sessions of losses.

Market participants are focused on the release of Germany’s HCOB PMI figures, scheduled for 07:30 GMT, with the Services PMI expected at 50.3. Eurozone-wide HCOB PMIs follow at 08:00 GMT, with forecasts pointing to 49.5 for Manufacturing and 50.6 for Services.

On Wednesday, Eurostat reported that the EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2% year-on-year in July, in line with expectations. Core HICP also matched forecasts at 2.3% YoY, unchanged from June.

ECB President Christine Lagarde commented that recent trade deals have eased, but not fully eliminated, economic uncertainty. She added that the European economy remains resilient despite ongoing global challenges.

The EUR/USD pair also faced headwinds from USD strength following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the July 29–30 meeting. The minutes revealed that most Fed officials viewed inflation risks as outweighing labor market concerns, while tariffs deepened divisions among policymakers. The majority considered it appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the 4.25%–4.50% range.

Market participants will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday for further signals on the Fed’s policy path.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday ending the session 0.98% higher as the US dollar softened, with investors turning their focus to the upcoming Jackson Hole economic symposium. Minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting revealed that dissenting policymakers were alone in favoring a rate cut.

However, Gold prices dipped in Asian trade on Thursday as uncertainty over U.S. interest rates weighed on the market. While two FOMC members had favored a rate cut in July, most policymakers opted against immediate reductions. Inflationary concerns, particularly the impact of President Trump’s trade tariffs, remained the key point of uncertainty.

Despite the pullback, gold has retained much of its gains this year, supported by haven demand amid concerns over slowing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty. Optimism that U.S. efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may not produce near-term results has also underpinned bullion.

Attention now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where investors will look for guidance on monetary policy amid calls from the Trump administration for rate cuts. Before that, key U.S. economic indicators—including August purchasing managers index data and initial jobless claims—are expected to provide additional insights into labor market conditions and overall economic momentum.

Oil prices climbed further in Asian trading on Thursday after a sharp rebound on Wednesday, supported by a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories and cautious optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace initiative.

Oil prices rose following the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report, which showed a draw of about 6 million barrels in crude stockpiles—far exceeding forecasts of a 1.8 million-barrel decline. The draw, driven by strong exports and steady refinery operations, signaled tightening supply alongside robust demand, boosting market sentiment.

Gasoline inventories also fell 2.7 million barrels, reflecting strong summer driving demand, while refinery utilization rose to 96.6%, highlighting high processing activity. Traders interpreted the sharp inventory declines and firm product demand as evidence that U.S. fuel consumption remains resilient, offsetting some concerns about global economic uncertainty. Earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.4 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending August 15.

Investor focus has also shifted to potential developments in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy. President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin following meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders at the White House. Trump indicated that he was working to arrange a meeting between Moscow and Kyiv, potentially followed by a trilateral summit with the U.S.

Traders are closely monitoring whether any peace framework could lead to a relaxation of Western sanctions on Russian crude exports. Russia remains a major global oil supplier, but sanctions have limited flows into Western markets since the start of the conflict.

The US 500 closed lower for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, weighed down by continued weakness in major technology stocks ahead of chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings report next week.

Megacap tech names, including Apple and Amazon, struggled, keeping broader tech sentiment subdued. Nvidia shares pared earlier losses to close roughly flat after a 3.5% drop on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the company’s results.

The Fed’s July meeting minutes showed officials prefer a cautious approach to further rate cuts, citing early tariff-driven inflation and uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs. The policy rate stayed at 4.25%-4.50% in 2025. Attention now turns to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech amid rising expectations of a September rate cut due to cooling labor and inflation data.

In corporate news, Retailers delivered mixed earnings results. Target shares fell after announcing a CEO succession and reporting ongoing sales challenges, while Estee Lauder slipped on weaker-than-expected profit guidance. Conversely, Lowe’s and TJX Companies posted gains after exceeding earnings expectations and revising full-year outlooks. Semiconductor firm Analog Devices also climbed after reporting better-than-expected results and providing an upbeat forecast.