English (India)
11
Oct

Italian Industrial Production, Oil at New 7-Year High

calendar 11/10/2021 - 03:56 UTC

While among the major currencies the Canadian dollar (CAD) was one of the best performers on a weekly basis as the USD/CAD pair was down by 1.32%, in emerging markets the Russian rouble (RUB) performed similarly strong with the USD/RUB pair ending the week with -1.31% after a flat performance on Friday.

Sentiment in the crypto market was a bit mixed, while the total market cap still hovered around $2.4 trillion. While Bitcoin touched again onto the $56k mark and Ripple was propelled up on Sunday within seven hours by more than 11%, Ethereum and some other altcoins stagnated over that period. Thus, the BTC/ETH pair managed to move up to the highest level since early August, with the BTC dominance estimated to reach now close to 44%.

After a mixed trading session on Friday for equity indices in Europe and the U.S., the market seemingly turned overall positive by Monday morning. Asian indices meanwhile continued to rally with the China A50 index trading at times up by almost eight per cent since Tuesday last week. The Japan 225 (JPY) index also strongly recovered at the start of the week moving up by more 1.7%.

EUR/USD

With the dollar trading overall somewhat lower against other majors as seen in the performance of the USDX, the EUR/USD pair managed to end the trading day on Friday with an upside of around 0.15% and the week only marginally lower. While the euro was no match to the strong Canadian dollar (CAD) on Friday, it made some advances against the Japanese yen (JPY) and the pound sterling (GBP)

On Friday increased volatility could be seen around the time of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) release, which with only 194 thousand jobs added in September disappointed, while at the same time the unemployment rate reported fell from 5.2% to 4.8%.

On Monday Italian industrial production data will be published. Then for Tuesday the German ZEW survey results as well as the CPI for September can be expected.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold and silver traded at the end of the day on Friday only moderately higher, with both closing within less than one per cent change compared to the previous week. Other precious metals, especially platinum and palladium on the other hand ended the week with a strong upside thanks to the rapid move higher on Friday as palladium moved up on Friday alone by 6.41%, while platinum was up by 4.43%.

The number of net speculative positions in gold futures was up moderately over the past week according to the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data from the U.S. CFTC.

One of the key statistics releases this week could be the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States. Last month the CPI increase on an annualised basis was for the first time coming down in almost a whole year, while there is still significant uncertainty whether or not the nature of the inflation is indeed just transitionary.

Gold

WTI Oil

While natural gas prices stabilised over the past week and did not break out significantly on Monday, the closing levels from Friday still meant that natural gas prices were up on a weekly basis for the seventh week in a row.

Oil prices are meanwhile continuing to trade at a modest but steady pace higher, with the WTI crude oil future contract reaching levels above $81 for the first time in seven years. It remains to be seen, when prices will face a meaningful resistance level as before the steep drop in the second half of 2014, oil traded much of the time well above $100 per barrel.

The U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count indicated another increase in the number of operating oil rigs, now amounting to 433.

The weekly statistical bulletin by the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published this week on Wednesday, followed by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles on Thursday.

WTI Oil

US 500

The performance among major U.S. stock market indices was a bit mixed on Friday with the US 500 index managing to close the week with a small upside despite some losses on Friday. On the other hand the small-cap index US 2000 closed on Friday down by 0.93% and ended the week once again lower.

As oil prices are up at a seven-year high and the gas market experienced some extreme volatility these past two weeks, the strong performance of energy (US Energy ETF +3.23%) stocks like ConocoPhillips (+4.91%) and Occidental Petroleum (+3.54%) should not come as a surprise.

The recovery in Chinese stocks continued with some stocks closing the week with double-digit gains after the continuously strong performance on Friday in shares like Alibaba (+3.62%), iQIYI (+7.45%) and HUYA (+5.18%).

This week companies that are known for releasing their quarterly results among the first each earning season are expected also to start reporting, including JPMorgan Chase and Delta Air Lines on Wednesday, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Thursday, followed by Prologis on Friday.

US 500

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