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Eurozone CPI Flash, US Core PCE Price Index, US Unemployment Claims

calendar 31/08/2023 - 07:57 UTC

The U.S. dollar continued downwards on Wednesday, after the ADP non-farm employment and the preliminary GDP reports came out weaker than expected, with the USDX ending the day 0.29% lower. A mixed picture was seen against emerging market currencies with the USD/ZAR 1.18% higher and the USD/CNH up by 0.22%, while USD/MXN fell by 0.25% and USD/INR was almost unchanged.

Energy prices moved moderately higher on Wednesday, following their surge the day before, with WTI ending the session 0.31% higher while Brent lost 0.20% on the iFOREX platform. Investors are trying to assess conflicting data as Chinese business activity in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, disappointed the markets however, the negative impact was limited by and a substantially bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stocks.

Weaker than anticipated fundamentals push gold prices even higher on Wednesday, partly supported by weakness in the dollar as well as declining Treasury yields. The yellow metal added another 0.42% to its value for the day, while silver surprisingly declined later in the session to close 0.39% lower.

The main US stock indices rose once again on Wednesday, with the US 500 up by 0.35%, the US 30 rising by 0.30% and the US tech 100 gaining 0.44%. Even though economic releases from the US were once again weaker than anticipated, this raises expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-hiking cycle in September, at least for a month.

Following the latest hawkish fundamentals from the US, markets were surprised to see more data indicating weakness in the employment sector, as well as GDP numbers showing that the U.S. economy expanded 2.1% in the second quarter, slower than a preliminary estimate of a 2.4% growth.

In the spotlight for Thursday is the core PCE number for July, which is due later in the day, and is expected to show a small 0.2% increase from the previous month, while estimates put annual core numbers at 4.2%, up from a previous 4.1%. Other reports due on Thursday include, eurozone annual flash CPI and unemployment rate while later in the day the Core PCE Price index is due along with US unemployment claims and personal income.


The EUR/USD pair rose for a third consecutive session ending the session 0.56% higher. Recent data releases from the US put pressure on the US Dollar, while inflation figures in the Eurozone suggest that additional tightening may continue from the European Central Bank.

The annual inflation rate in Germany fell from 6.2% to 6.1% in August. In Spain, the annual rate rose from 2.3% to 2.6% as expected, with the core rate remaining above 6%. Despite the downward trend, inflation levels remain too high, leaving room for potential tightening from the ECB.

In the US, data released on Wednesday showed a smaller than expected increase in private payrolls, with 177,000 jobs added compared to the market consensus of 195,000. Q2 GDP was also revised lower.



Gold prices continued to move on the upside on Wednesday ending the session 0.42% higher posting gains for a third day in a row, as a fresh batch of weak U.S economic readings reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may have to hit pause on its interest rate hikes.

Benchmark 10-year yields dropped to their lowest since Aug. 11 while the dollar slipped to a two-week low after U.S. GDP data showed a softening of the economy in the second quarter. A drop in U.S. job openings added to the sentiment.



Oil prices posted moderate gains on Wednesday, with the WTI contract on iForex platform ending the session 0.31% higher after the release of U.S government data which showed tighter-than-expected crude supplies. At the same time concerns about the Chinese economy limited gains.

U.S crude inventories fell by 10.6 million barrels in the last week to 422.9 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. Elsewhere, analysts expect Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to extend its voluntary output cut into October, keeping oil supply tight.


US 500

U.S. stocks ended higher, and the dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, as a slew of disappointing economic data raised the probability that the Federal Reserve will press the pause button in its efforts to rein in inflation. U.S main indexes ended the session higher with the US 500 and US 30 posting moderate gains of 0.35% and 0.30% respectively while the US Tech 100 ended the day 0.44% higher.

Fresh gross domestic product numbers showed the U.S. economy expanded 2.1% in the second quarter, slower than a preliminary estimate of a 2.4% growth.

Market Participants are now looking to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and non-farm payroll numbers for more clues on interest rates.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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