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The USDX began the week with a gain, moving 0.19% higher and recovering some of its losses from last Friday, as President Donald Trump eased tensions with China. Following his aggressive tariff threats last week, Trump backpedaled over the weekend, opening the door for further negotiations and spurring an improvement in risk sentiment that pushed US equities higher. The USDX is trading near 99.28 as a result of the change in rhetoric and comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who suggested that the threatened 100% tariffs do not have to happen, adding that President Trump remains on track to meet with Chinese President Xi in Korea. However, the dollar's advance was capped by dovish comments from Philadelphia Fed new President Anna Paulson, who hinted at a preference for a gradual path of rate cuts Traders are now keenly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday for fresh policy guidance.
Gold continued its powerful ascent, moving 2.3% higher on Monday and continues to move higher, scaling new all-time record highs beyond the $4,100 mark through Tuesday's Asian session. The precious metal remains strongly supported by a persistent flight to safety, driven by several key fundamental factors: renewed US-China Trade Tensions, which, despite President Trump's attempt to soften his tone over the weekend, continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven flows toward bullion; firming expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year, which continue to undermine the US Dollar, significantly benefiting the non-yielding asset; and the prolonged US government shutdown, now extending into its third week with no resolution.
Traders are now looking ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this Tuesday for clues on the central bank's next move. The outlook is also being influenced by ongoing political turmoil in France despite government efforts to present a budget aimed at cutting the deficit. Upcoming data for the week includes Germany’s inflation figures and employment figures for the UK.
Asian equity markets largely retreated on Tuesday morning, reversing earlier gains despite a strong overnight rally on Wall Street. The Chinese mainland markets and Hong Kong 50 all trended lower as caution returned. As of 05:21 AM GMT, the China SSE fell -0.13%, the China SZSE dropped -1.18%, and the Hong Kong 50 was down -0.64%. This occurred despite an attempt at de-escalation by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who confirmed that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were still expected to meet. The Commerce Ministry of China, while confirming working-level discussions are ongoing this week, simultaneously vowed to "fight till the end" against US tariff measures, prompting investors to pare back risk exposure. Japanese shares slumped significantly after returning from a market holiday. The Japan 225 dropped -0.67% and the Japan 100 fell -0.3% as of 05:21 AM GMT. This weakness was exacerbated by political uncertainty in Japan following a setback to a key leadership bid last week.
Despite the improvement in overall sentiment, the lingering risk of a deeper rift between the US and China, alongside the ongoing enthusiastic sentiment surrounding Artificial Intelligence, continues to be a primary influence on equity valuations. Individual stocks saw dramatic moves driven by AI developments: Broadcom rallied 9.88% after the designer of custom AI chips announced a major, multi-year partnership with OpenAI to jointly develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators and computing systems, while cloud software giant Oracle climbed 5.14% ahead of its much-anticipated AI event in Las Vegas this week. Furthermore, the market remains focused on the start of the Q3 earnings season, which is being led by major US banks, with investors hoping for economic clarity following a protracted federal government shutdown that has halted the release of official indicators.
The main US equity indices moved sharply higher on Monday, staging a significant recovery from Friday's steep losses. The market rebound was primarily driven by a conciliatory tone from President Donald Trump over the weekend, which eased fears of an escalating US-China trade war.
The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday, with EUR/USD down 0.31% as renewed trade friction between Washington and Beijing boosted demand for the greenback. Political turbulence in France further weighed on the single currency, compounding pressure on the Eurozone outlook.
The U.S. dollar strengthened after President Trump renewed trade tensions by threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, in response to China’s new export and port restrictions. He later softened his stance, assuring on Truth Social that relations with China would “be fine” and emphasizing cooperation over conflict.
The euro also faced headwinds from growing political instability in France after President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister. Opposition leaders Marine Le Pen and Éric Ciotti quickly responded with a no-confidence motion aimed at toppling the newly formed government, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors.
Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde later this week, seeking clues on the future direction of monetary policy.
On the Eurozone front, key releases this week include Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and remarks from ECB board member Mario Cipollone.
In the U.S., the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index edged lower to 55.0 from 55.1, slightly above expectations. Inflation expectations for one year dipped to 4.6%, while the five-year outlook held steady at 3.7%, signaling modest progress in inflation perceptions.
Gold prices soared to fresh record highs on Monday, breaking above $4,100 per ounce for the first time as investors sought safety amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Silver also surged to an all-time high, supported by the same bullish momentum.
The precious metal has now gained 56% year-to-date, having crossed the $4,000 mark just last week. A combination of geopolitical uncertainty, monetary easing expectations, and robust central bank demand are the key drivers of the rally.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing resurfaced on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade disputes, ending months of relative calm between the world’s two largest economies.
Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, and a 100% probability of another cut in December, according to the FedWatch tool. Gold, a non-yielding asset, typically benefits in lower interest rate environments.
Oil prices climbed on Monday after confirmation that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, easing fears of renewed trade friction between the world’s two largest economies. The reassurance helped crude benchmarks recover from five-month lows hit late last week.
Both benchmarks had fallen around 4% on Friday, their lowest close since May, after Trump threatened to cancel the planned summit with Xi and to impose steep new tariffs on Chinese imports.
On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the meeting remains scheduled to take place in South Korea in late October, noting there had been “substantial communications” between Washington and Beijing over the weekend.
Oil prices, which have been volatile this year amid shifting trade headlines, found support as hopes for renewed dialogue helped stabilize market sentiment.
Further gains in crude were capped by progress toward peace in the Middle East. Palestinian militant group Hamas released the final 20 Israeli hostages on Monday under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal.
President Trump called the development the “historic dawn of a new Middle East” following two years of conflict in Gaza. However, traders remained cautious, waiting for confirmation that the ceasefire will hold before factoring it into longer-term oil price expectations.
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, lifted by gains in Broadcom and other chipmakers after President Donald Trump adopted a softer stance on trade relations with China, easing investor concerns that rattled markets last week.
AI-related technology stocks led the rebound. Broadcom surged nearly 10% after announcing a partnership with OpenAI to produce the startup’s first in-house artificial intelligence processors. Other semiconductor names also advanced, with Nvidia up 2.8%, Micron Technology gaining more than 6%.
Monday’s rally followed a steep selloff on Friday, when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest weekly losses in months after Trump threatened new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and potential export controls on U.S. software beginning November 1.
Over the weekend, Trump appeared to dial back his rhetoric, saying relations with China “will all be fine” and emphasizing that the U.S. did not seek to “hurt” Beijing. China responded by blaming Washington for the tensions but stopped short of introducing fresh countermeasures.
Earnings season begins Tuesday, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report quarterly results. Investors will be watching closely for signs of how tariffs and trade disruptions are affecting corporate profits.
Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, official economic data releases remain delayed, making corporate earnings a key barometer of economic health.
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