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On early Tuesday, Dow Future further surged on upbeat Chinese economic data. Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales printed better than expected, indicating the world’s 2nd largest economy is recovering fast from the corona slow down and may lead the global economic recovery post-COVID-19. And after the U.S. Nov election, we may see a significant cooldown of cold/tech/COVID war.
On Monday, Dow Future was also boosted as China's Finance Ministry said the country would extend tariff exemptions for 16 products from the U.S. for another year. The concerned goods include lubricants, whey, and fish meal. According to the ministry, the exemptions will last until September 16, 2021.
The positive Chinese gesture came despite China remains under pressure from its biggest trading partners. The U.S. is banning some hair products, apparel, cotton, and computer components from the country. President Xi pushed back against EU ‘lecturing’ about human rights in a call about European investment with the region's leaders yesterday.
On corona stimulus 4.0, Trump’s son-in-law and a vital deal maker (behind the scene), Kushner said the Capitol Hill may have to wait until after the Nov election. But Kushner also said there is still hope for a deal as the first round of stimulus, ‘put a lot of lead on the target’, and that a new round was necessary.
On the COVID-19 vaccine front, Trump said in an interview the U.S. will likely have a vaccine against COVID-19 in a matter of weeks. Trump also denied allegations he is pressuring the concerned authority (US FDA) to release a coronavirus vaccine for political reasons. Trump reiterated as soon as the vaccine is available, his admin and U.S. Military will be ready to deliver it immediately:
I'm not doing it for political reasons; I want the vaccine fast--- without the operation Warp Speed---You wouldn't have a vaccine for years---I speeded up the process with the FDA--- We're going to have a vaccine in a matter of weeks, it could be four weeks it could be eight weeks ... we have a lot of great companies.
On his apparent downplaying COVID-19 around Feb-Mar, Trump pointed out: I don't want to create panic. I don't want to build it up--now the U.S. is in a better spot now on the pandemic than it was earlier this year. We're rounding the turn on the pandemic---Texas is coming down-- Florida is doing great.
Now as the COVID-19 is fading gradually, the public focus would shift from corona politics to economics, where Trump is far ahead of Biden in the Nov election. The appeal of Trumponomics (tax cut & another fiscal stimulus, deregulation), Trump’s bellicose style of leadership be it on domestic or foreign issues and ultra-nationalist image may help him to win the U.S. election despite the COVID-19 incumbency wave.
The American people will realize that even if Biden/Clinton was in place of Trump at the Oval Office, under the present U.S. democracy (system), it’s not possible for a draconian type of COVID-19 containment like China, Japan or even South Korea, where electronic surveillance along with big data analytics was used to track, trace and treat COVID-19 infected persons. Pandemic is a pandemic, no one can prevent/contain it unless a draconian type of containment measure is taken.
Technical Outlook: SPX-500, DJ-30, and NQ-100 (Futs): Updated 09/09/20
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