Wall Street is almost flat on Trump’s China tariff flip-flops

·       On Thursday, stocks surged as, contrary to earlier hawkish rhetoric, Trump offered lower tariffs if China opened up more for US goods & services

·       Trump gave the example of the US-UK preliminary trade deal/MOU, in which the UK removed erstwhile selected agri restrictions for US farm products

·       The market was not happy about Trump’s 10% basic universal tariff under the best-case scenario; this is far higher than the earlier 2.5%

·       The US-UK preliminary tariff/trade deal was a non-event, and stocks slid initially but recovered later on Trump’s soft tone on China and Trump’s call for investors to buy US stocks

On Tuesday, May 6, 2025, Wall Street slips on Trump’s hardball stance with China and Canada. But stocks also spiked briefly as Bessent said trade deals are coming as soon as this week, teasing a 'substantial reduction' in tariffs. The S&P 500 slipped nearly 0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.9%, and the Dow dropped almost 400 points. On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, Wall Street Futures surged in late trade despite a hawkish hold by the Fed. Wall Street was buoyed by the start of US-China formal trade talks this weekend (May 9) in Geneva (a neutral place). However, Trump already threatened he will not cut China tariffs as part & parcel of his epic deal-making skill in bullying tactics, which China may not digest. China may not budge and make a trade deal at Trump’s gunpoint.

But on Wednesday, after the US spot market closed, Wall Street Futures surged on Nvidia boost as Trump may rescind global AI chip curbs. But the overall positive impact was quite brief and limited as it would be targeted, mainly for Saudi Arabia and other ME countries, as a part of Trump’s visit to those countries next week. Also, it would not apply to ‘adversary’ countries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Gold slips and USD surged on a hawkish hold by the Fed and the progress of US-China formal trade talks; Trump may also announce the 1st trade deal (MOU) with the U.K. and India later today or tomorrow.

On early Wednesday, May 7, 2025, Wall Street Futures also surged, while Gold slipped after a report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer will meet Chinese officials in Switzerland this week, aiming to open trade talks. The US Treasury said Bessent would meet China's lead economic/trade representative, Premier He Lifeng. China's Foreign Ministry confirmed Vice Premier He Lifeng would be the one to join the talks before traveling to France.

Later, it was confirmed that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese officials, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 8-9, 2025. The talks aim to address the ongoing trade war, particularly the high tariffs imposed by both nations—145% on Chinese goods by the U.S. and 125% on American goods by China. Bessent has emphasized de-escalation, describing the current tariff levels as unsustainable and akin to an embargo, while clarifying that the goal is fair trade, not decoupling. The meeting is seen as an initial step toward potential negotiations, though expectations for a comprehensive trade deal are low. Both officials will also meet Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter to discuss reciprocal trade.

On April 8, 2025, Trump sounded quite soft on the China trade deal while addressing the media at the US-UK phase one trade deal in his Oval Office (White House). Trump termed Chinese President Xi as his close old friend and virtually offered lower tariffs. Trump also urged China to open up its economy for foreign/US companies with an appropriate level playing ground, citing the UK’s example.

New York Post: US weighs plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% from 145% as soon as next week. Specifically, US officials are discussing a proposal to lower President Trump’s punishing levy on Chinese goods to between 50% and 54% as they begin what promises to be lengthy talks to hammer out a trade agreement, sources close to the negotiations said.

The New York Post reported that the Trump administration is considering reducing the 145% tariff on Chinese imports to as low as 50% as early as next week, citing unidentified sources. However, a White House spokesperson dismissed the report as speculation, stating that any tariff decisions would come directly from the President.

On May 8, 2025, Trump signed the US-UK Trade Deal.

U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Starmer announced a "breakthrough" trade deal, marking the first significant trade agreement since the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on global trading partners on April 2, 2025, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement, made from the White House with Starmer joining via speakerphone, outlined a framework aimed at enhancing bilateral trade, though final details were still being finalized. The deal was celebrated as a milestone in the U.S.- U.K. "special relationship," coinciding with the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day.

Tariff Adjustments

·       The U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on U.K. steel, aluminum, and cars, lowering the previous 25% duties on these sectors to 10% for cars and eliminating tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, a 10% baseline tariff on most U.K. goods imported to the U.S. remains in place.

·       The U.K. reduced its average tariffs on U.S. goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, enhancing market access for American exports, particularly in agriculture, ethanol, chemicals, and machinery.

Automobiles and Steel:

·       The UK secured reductions in Trump’s 25% tariffs on cars and steel, which were among the hardest-hit sectors.

Agricultural Exports: 

·       The deal unlocks $5 billion in new U.S. export opportunities, including $700 million in ethanol and $250 million in agricultural products like beef. The U.K. agreed to reduce non-tariff barriers that previously restricted U.S. agricultural goods.

·       U.K. negotiators maintained strict standards, explicitly barring imports of hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken to protect British farming and environmental regulations.

·       The UK maintained its “red line” on food standards, refusing to lower standards aligned with the EU.

·       However, some US producers not using growth hormones or antimicrobial washes may gain greater market access.

Pharmaceuticals

·       The status of tariffs on the UK’s pharmaceutical exports (worth £7.2 billion to the US in 2024) remained unclear.

Digital Services Tax

·       The U.K. made concessions on its digital services tax, which affects major U.S. tech companies like Google and Amazon, though the tax was not eliminated. This was a significant win for U.S. interests.

·       The US pushed for a reduction in the UK’s digital services tax (levied at 2% on online marketplaces, search engines, and social media platforms), which affects American tech giants like Google and Amazon. The UK offered to lower but not eliminate this tax.

Non-Tariff Barriers

·       The agreement streamlines customs procedures, enhances intellectual property protections, and secures supply chains for pharmaceuticals and aerospace components. It also provides preferential access for U.S. firms to U.K. procurement markets.

Potential Economic Impact

·       The deal is expected to save thousands of U.K. jobs, particularly in the car, steel, and aluminum industries, by reducing export costs.

·       For the U.S., it strengthens its trade surplus ($12 billion in 2024) and supports American farmers and manufacturers.

·       However, economists suggest the immediate economic boost for the U.K. may be limited, with long-term growth potential.

Global Template

·       The agreement reflects a strategic shift for the U.K., which prioritized a deal with the U.S. amid global trade tensions sparked by Trump’s tariffs. It also navigates the U.K.’s alignment with EU standards, as Starmer emphasized maintaining high food and environmental standards. The deal positions the U.K. as a model for other nations negotiating with the U.S.

Challenges

·       The deal requires U.S. Congressional approval, which is uncertain given Trump’s lack of unilateral authority. Additionally, ongoing negotiations, particularly on agriculture, may face resistance, with U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins planning further talks in the U.K.

·       UK opposition leaders, particularly the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, criticized the US-UK trade deal for perceived imbalances.

·       U.K. Business leaders, including the CBI and TUC, welcomed job-saving tariff reductions but expressed caution about agricultural concessions and limited economic gains.

·       The NFU highlighted risks to farmers, while all groups called for clarity on the deal’s long-term impact.

·       The reactions underscore tensions between mitigating Trump’s tariffs and safeguarding UK interests, with political and public skepticism of Trump shaping the discourse.

·       Framework for Future Talks: The agreement is expected to set out general terms, serving as a framework for further negotiations on specific details.

Background

The U.S.-U.K. trade deal follows years of stalled negotiations, which began in 2020 but were paused under the Biden administration. Trump’s April 2025 tariffs, including a 10% universal tariff and higher sectoral duties, prompted urgent talks. The U.K. avoided reciprocal tariffs due to its trade surplus with the U.S. but faced pressure to secure exemptions before the tariff pause expires on July 9, 2025. The deal builds on prior U.K. efforts to sign Memoranda of Understanding with U.S. states and reflects Starmer’s diplomatic engagement with Trump, including a February 2025 White House visit.

The U.S.-U.K. trade deal of May 8, 2025, is a significant step toward mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs and strengthening bilateral trade. While it offers immediate relief for key U.K. industries and expands U.S. market access, its full economic impact and finalization depend on further negotiations and U.S. Congressional approval. The agreement underscores the U.K.’s strategic balancing act between U.S. and EU trade priorities and sets a precedent for other nations navigating Trump’s tariff policies.

The agreement followed Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, which included a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher “reciprocal” tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US. The UK, running a trade deficit with the US, was spared the higher reciprocal tariffs but faced the 10% baseline levy and 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.

The deal is described as limited in scope, not a full free trade agreement (FTA) as previously envisioned post-Brexit. It focuses on reducing tariffs on specific goods, particularly in sectors heavily impacted by Trump’s tariffs. The UK is likely to lower its tariffs on US cars and certain agricultural products to secure the tariff reductions. British officials emphasized maintaining high food standards, with Downing Street stating that lowering standards was a non-negotiable “red line.”

Specific terms of the deal were not immediately available, with both the White House and Downing Street remaining tight-lipped. It was unclear whether the agreement was fully finalized or a preliminary framework. The status of the 10% baseline tariff and potential pharmaceutical tariffs remained unresolved. The UK government faced domestic criticism over potential concessions, particularly on the digital services tax, given public discontent with tax avoidance by tech giants.

Unlike Canada and the EU, which threatened retaliatory tariffs, the UK adopted a less combative stance, prioritizing negotiations. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s diplomatic efforts, including a dinner with Trump at Trump Tower in 2024 and an invitation for a state visit from King Charles, were credited for securing the deal. In 2024, US-UK trade in goods and services was worth $419 billion, up 3.9% from the previous year. Initially, the UK was considered a second- or third-phase priority in US trade talks, with Asian countries like South Korea, India, and Japan taking precedence. However, the UK’s proactive diplomacy moved it to the forefront. The UK also struck a trade deal with India earlier that week, reducing tariffs on scotch whisky and car exports, indicating its post-Brexit strategy to build trade relationships with multiple partners.

Economists suggested the immediate economic impact would be limited, but the deal could support long-term growth. The FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, and the FTSE 250 gained 1.1% following the announcement, though the pound dipped slightly against the dollar.

Trump’s comments

Trump described the agreement as “full and comprehensive” and stated it would “cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come.” He emphasized the historical ties between the two nations, noting it was an honor to have the UK as the first country to sign such a deal.

·       We are making great progress on “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” Our Economy is doing well, but it’s going to BOOM in a way never seen before. We are going to do NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON SENIORS’ SOCIAL SECURITY, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, and much more. It will be the biggest Tax Cut for Middle and Working Class Americans by far, and it is time for Main Street to WIN. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

·       Big News Conference tomorrow at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!

·       The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long-time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!

·       The Golden Age of America is coming!

·       Today is an incredible day for America as we deliver our first Fair, Open, and Reciprocal Trade Deal — Something our past Presidents never cared about. Together with our strong Ally, the United Kingdom, we have reached the first historic Trade Deal since Liberation Day. As part of this Deal, America will raise $6 BILLION DOLLARS in External Revenue from 10% Tariffs, $5 BILLION DOLLARS in new Export Opportunities for our Great Ranchers, Farmers, and Producers, and enhance the National Security of both the U.S. and the UK through the creation of an Aluminum and Steel Trading Zone, and a secure Pharmaceutical Supply Chain. This Deal shows that if you respect America, and bring serious proposals to the table, America is OPEN FOR BUSINESS. Many more to come — STAY TUNED!

·       As part of this Deal, America will raise $6 billion dollars in External Revenue from 10% Tariffs, $5 billion dollars in new Export Opportunities for our Great Ranchers, Farmers, and Producers, and enhance the National Security of both the U.S. and the UK through the creation of an Aluminum and Steel Trading Zone, and a secure Pharmaceutical Supply Chain.

·       Talks with Russia/Ukraine continue. The U.S. calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions. Thousands of young soldiers are dying on a weekly basis, and everybody should want it to STOP. I do, and the United States of America does, also. As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be! This ceasefire must ultimately build toward a Peace Agreement. It can all be done very quickly, and I will be available on a moment’s notice if my services are needed. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Trump virtually claimed that the U.K. will pay the tariffs of 10% on its $60B yearly quota-based export to the US, amounting to $6B!

·       I have spoken with my wonderful Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and we agree that the Biden/Harris so-called “Digital Equity Act” is totally UNCONSTITUTIONAL. No more woke handouts based on race! The Digital Equity Program is a RACIST and ILLEGAL $2.5 BILLION DOLLAR giveaway. I am ending this IMMEDIATELY, and saving Taxpayers BILLIONS OF DOLLARS!

Trump now often claims that he would be better that Powell as Fed Chair as he knows and understands the economy better. After the BOE rate cut Thursday (May 08), Trump posted in his Truth handle, calling Fed Chair Powell a ‘Too Late FOOL’ for delaying rate cuts despite lower food & fuel inflation:

·       “Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy are way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!

Trump portrayed his trade agreement with the UK as a historic achievement and the first step in his revolutionary effort to transform the global economy. As the United States prepares to begin talks with China, the primary target of Trump's tariffs, the president expressed confidence that negotiations could result in tangible progress. Trump also said positive trade news, combined with Republican efforts to pass legislation extending and expanding his signature tax cuts, should boost Wall Street: "This country will hit a point that you better go out and buy stocks”.

Highlights of Trump’s media bytes:

·       From the UK trade deal, the US will raise $6 billion in external revenue from 10% tariffs, and 5 billion dollars in new export opportunities

·       The US-UK trade deal will lead to the creation of an aluminum and steel trading zone and a secure pharmaceutical supply chain.

·       This is a conclusive deal, we can grow it from here

·       We will take trade with the UK to new levels

·       Over time changes will be made to deal, we're flexible

·       Very close to numerous deals

·       I intend to make a deal with Europe

·       We will be dealing with Europe

·       We will have discussions on films

·       I will be going to Scotland later in the year

·       I took the Rolls Royce tariff down to 10% from 25%

·       I think the 10% baseline is set, is not a template for future deals

·       The template of 10% is probably the lowest-end

·       We won't do a similar deal with cars

·       I hope to meet with EC Pres. von der Leyen

·       Fed's Powell is always late

·       BoE cut, China cut, and everyone is cutting but Powell. Talking to Powell is like talking to a wall.

·       Better go out and buy stocks now

·       The stock market will rally now

·       If Powell would lower rates, it would be like jet fuel

·       Powell is probably not in love with me

·       The US is doing well even without a Fed cut

·       We will put 100% on toys if Mattel goes outside the US

·       I am not concerned about UK-China ties

·       We're going to be putting out a statement that says we've signed this country, that country.

·       The US will be very much involved in Ukraine-Russia discussions, we will be very involved in ending Russia's Ukraine invasion.

·       I don't think I will talk to Putin in Saudi Arabia

·       Trying to work on Iran without getting into bombing

·       I don't want to bomb Iran

·       Talks with Russia-Ukraine continue

·       The US calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions.

·       Trump on China: We can all play games, but it only matters what happens during talks. We will see how the China talks work out.

·       Trump asked if the China tariff could be lowered: It could be

·       It could be that tariffs on China would go down

·       I would like to see China open (like the UK)

·       I think we'll have a good weekend with China

·       China has more to gain than the US from talks

·       We could lower tariffs if talks go well

·       I might see China’s President Xi after weekend talks

·       China tariffs can't get any higher than 145%, we know it's coming down

·       We're going to have a large share of the chip-making market

·       China talks will be substantive

·       China wants to do something

·       We want to compete in China

·       We want China to let our businesses in

·       Trump asked if China tariffs could be lowered: Says they could be

·       Trump on if he'll ask China for Ukraine-Russia help: I think so

·       We have tremendous things happening in trade

·       I wouldn’t be surprised if a trade deal were reached with China

Highlights of the US Trade Secretary Lutnick's comments:

·       Our 10% tariff stays on as a baseline universal tariff for any country

·       The UK deal opens access to US agricultural products and machinery

·       UK ethanol, beef, machinery, and agriculture markets are now open for the US

·       The quota for 10% auto tariffs for the UK is 100,000 cars, only around 0.6% for the US market, but significant for the UK

·       The UK government nationalized British Steel as part of this deal (so no need to worry about US national security)

·       We have allowed Rolls-Royce engines and plane parts to come over tariff-free.

·       The UK will announce it will buy (import) $10 bln worth of Boeing planes against the export of Boeing/jet engines & parts from Rolls-Royce.

·       I think we'll get there by July 8th

·       As you get to bigger economies and more work, it takes time

·       I think the 10% baseline tariff stays

·       If nations open their market, the best they can do is 10%

·       De-escalation and bringing rates down is the goal for China

·       We're going to roll out deals over the next month

·       De-escalation with China is Bessent's goal in talks

·       The US is to roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month

·       We want 50% of the chips to be domestic

·       I am in favor of raising the tax rate on high earners

·       US Treasury Secretary Bessent is focused on China discussions. I'm a driver on the others

·       The UK deal helps ease reliance on the Chinese supply chain a bit

·       I am focused on big countries for the next trade deals

·       We want a trade deal with a big country from Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Caribbean islands

·       We have the cards, and we will play them well in trade talks.

·       The UK deal helps, wants a trade deal with a big country from Asia.

US Trade Representative (USTR) Greer:

·       US enforcement action may be needed on imported services

US Treasury Department

·       We will establish a fast-track process to facilitate greater investment in US businesses from allied and partner sources

·       I am confident that we can have a straightforward talk with China

Trump Trade Adviser Navarro:

·       We're going to take good care of Boeing

·       The UK deal offers a template for how we are going to proceed

·       US-UK Digital Services Terms are still in negotiations

·       We will have an alternative arrangement with the UK on steel

·       Navarro, when asked about the EU: Retaliation is a mistake

·       The US is not getting rid of all tariffs on steel and aluminum

US Agriculture Secretary Rollins:

·       The UK deal will increase US beef exports

·       The trade team looks at all meats and produce

US Spirits Association:

·       We are hopeful that the US and EU will continue negotiations to secure a permanent return to zero tariffs on spirits

US VP Vance:

·       If Russia is not negotiating in good faith, the US will walk away

·       The tax bill will grow the US economy

·       Musk is not disappearing; more waste can be found

UK Farmers Union NFU:

·       Our biggest concern with the US trade deal is that two agricultural sectors have been singled out to shoulder the heavy burden of removing tariffs for other industries

UK's PM Starmer & UK Govt:

·       The US trade deal delivers on the promise to protect British carmakers and the steel sector

·       US tariffs on automotive immediately slashed from 27.5% to 10%, with steel and aluminum reduced to zero

·       The US trade deal gives unprecedented market access for British farmers, with protections on food standards maintained

·       We will also remove the tariff on ethanol coming into the UK from the US, down to zero

·       All tariff cuts as part of the US economic deal will come into force as soon as possible

·       We have agreed to new reciprocal market access on beef, with UK farmers given a tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tonnes.

·       Work will continue on the remaining sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and reciprocal tariffs.

·       We're sending a message to the world: Britain is open for business

·       Under the deal, the UK car manufacturers are limited to a 100,000 per year vehicle quota at a reciprocal rate of 10%, and thereafter will pay 25%

·       The US wants to see the UK digital services tax restructured, but that was not agreed to in the trade deal

·       The main follow-up will be continuing negotiations over tariff liberalization

·       There's no agreed-upon process for addressing digital services tax

·       The deal with the US is not a finished trade agreement, but it is substantive

·       We continue to negotiate on tariffs, and we may be asking for greater liberalization than they will agree to

·       US Agriculture Secretary Rollins is to lead a trade delegation to the UK, May 12th-14th

·       I am fairly confident that, while the baseline tariff will be 10%, the effective rate will be something different if we continue to negotiate

·       Our auto producers and steel companies were facing layoffs and closures if no deal had been reached.

UK Trade Secretary Reynolds:

·       There's nothing in the US deal on the UK digital services tax or the NHS

·       It is not clear exactly what the US is proposing on film tariffs

·       The quota for US beef imports would be a small part of the UK market

Conclusions: 

China is in a better position of strength to win this long war of attrition on trade; the US has to reset completely to compete with mighty China. Trump may soon scale back unusually high tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods to avert a potential imminent supply shock for the US economy; there are no easy alternatives to replace Chinese goods in terms of scale, efficiency, and costs for at least the next few years. Trump also has to ensure tariff policy stability in the next few days, rather than constant flip-flops, as US retailers and MSMEs need to place advance orders for the coming festival season sales by May to big exporters like China.

Trump and Bessent’s constant trade & tariff talks and flip-flops indicate that the Trump admin is now under huge public and media pressure to act soon, as the US economy is facing a severe supply shock, which can result in a significantly higher cost of living. If the US companies/importers can’t raise prices amid Trump's threat and increasing autocratic behavior, their financial health will deteriorate. Various influential Republican leaders are now openly criticizing Trump’s bellicose tariffs and other policies, which may affect the mid-term US election next year (November 26). Trump is set to lose his trifecta by Jan’27. Some Republican leaders and also most of the Democrats are now trying to take back Tariffs power from Trump to the US Congress for policy stability.

Market Impact

On Thursday, May 8, 2025, Wall Street initially on details about the US-UK trade deal, which indicated a minimum US tariff would be 10% under best best-case scenario; i.e., for countries that would open up more or liberalize trade policy for a free & fair entry of US goods. This may not be so easy for China, India, Japan, South Korea, and various other countries. Thus, the trade negotiations with other countries may be lengthier than July 8, 2025. Trump is also seeking a tax hike on the wealthy who earn $2.5 million or more to around 40% from the present 37% (with various tax exemptions). This may affect HNI sentiment.

But later, Wall Street Futures surged soon after Trump sounded soft on China ahead of the weekend preliminary trade talks in Geneva. Also, Trump’s call to buy Wall Street (US stocks) boosted the market sentiment. The US-UK trade volume is insignificant compared to the EU or China, and even Mexico, Canada, Germany, and Japan. Wall Street was fueled by optimism around trade and easing geopolitical tensions over the Ukraine war. Trump described the UK deal as a breakthrough that would boost American exports, though a 10% tariff remains in place. He also hinted that tariffs on China could come down depending on the outcome of trade talks this weekend in Switzerland, where US officials will meet their Chinese counterparts.

On Thursday, Wall Street was boosted by consumer discretionary, industrials, energy, materials, techs, financials, and communication services, while dragged by healthcare, utilities, real estate, and consumer staples. The S&P 500 edged up 0.6%, the Nasdaq-100 surged 1%, and the Dow-30 rose 255 points. Dow (DJ-30) WAS BOOSTED BY Boeing (after the UK agreed to buy its airplanes), Walt Disney, American Express, Goldman Sachs, 3M, Amazon, Caterpillar, Microsoft and Chevron, while dragged by Merck, Coca-Cola, Walmart, McDonald’s, United Health, Amgen, J&J, Verizon, P&G and IBM. China's heavy stocks got some boost from Trump’s soft tone on China.

On early Friday, Wall Street Futures slipped after Trump suggested 80% tariffs on China ahead of formal trade talks with China. The market was expecting 50%-40% (with Fentanyl tariffs of 20%). Trump truthed:

·       80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott Bessent.

·       CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO THE USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!

But overall, it’s well well-known strategy for Trump’s deal-making strategy to play offensively first rather than defensively.

Weekly-Technical trading levels: DJ-30, NQ-100, and Gold

Looking ahead, whatever the fundamental narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 41400) now has to sustain over 41800 for a further rally towards 42000/42500-43000/43500, and even 44600-45200 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 41700, DJ-30 may again fall to 41000/40600-4010039900 and 39700/38600-38000/37700-37300/37000 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (20200) has to sustain over 20800 for a further rally to 21100/21400-21700/22000 and 22400-22600 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 20750/20600-20500/20400, NQ-100 may again fall to 20000/19600-19400/19200 and 19100/18800-18600/18000-17600/16400 and 16200-15800 in the coming days.

Also, technically Gold (CMP: 3240) has to sustain over 3300 for any recovery to 3325/3375* and 3400/3425-3450/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3290-3275, Gold may again fall to 3255/3225-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.