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30
May

U.S. GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

calendar 30/05/2024 - 08:04 UTC

The U.S. dollar continues to ascend on Wednesday, with the dollar index (USDX) adding another 0.51% to its value to hit two-week highs. According to reports, this move was largely attributed to rising treasury yields as well as higher demand for safe haven assets following a rise in Middle East tensions. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been pushed back amid signs of sticky inflation and resilience in the economy further confirmed by positive consumer sentiment data on Tuesday.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, bets for the first rate reduction to take place in September were slightly up from 41.7% to 42.1% while November bets remained unchanged at around 44.6%.

On the energy front, the two main benchmarks WTI and Brent gave back a large proportion of recent gains, declining by 1.23% and 1.25% respectively to end a four day winning streak, amid expectations for lower demand for fuel. However, rising global oil inventories in April may strengthen the case for OPEC+ producers to keep ongoing production cuts.

Wall street took a hit on Wednesday, as the US 30, the US tech 100 and the US 500 have all posted declines of 1.55%, 1.09% and 0.98% respectively due to an overall shift of investors towards safe haven assets driven by market uncertainty and a rise in treasury yields. Some noteworthy moves were observed in airlines stocks and specifically in American Airlines Group as the company cut its guidance on Q2 profit, sending its shares more than 13.5% lower.

The main point of focus for this week lies on the PCE price index data which could play a crucial role in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. The index is forecasted to show inflation remaining sticky through April. Some price action could also be observed later today upon the release of first quarter gross domestic product where the report is expected to show resilience in the U.S. economy supporting the case of high rates for longer.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD pulled back sharply on Wednesday, falling back to the 1.0800 level ending the session 0.46% lower.

The pair dropped sharply despite the release of a slightly hot German CPI data for May. Monthly headline CPI grew at a slower pace of 0.1% from the estimates of 0.2%. In the same period, the harmonized inflation rose by 0.2% as expected. Annual headline inflation data grew in line with estimates of 2.4%.

Today's calendar includes the Pan-European Consumer Confidence in May. After that, US quarterly GDP is expected later in the day. Market will be looking for signs of softening in the US economy as firm growth, a tight labour market, and still-high inflation figures hamper the Fed’s ability to deliver rate cuts at a pace that investors continue to look for.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices fell on Wednesday ending the session 0.91% lower, weighed chiefly by strength in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields as traders remained on edge before key economic readings that are likely to factor into interest rates.

The yellow metal was pressured by anticipation of more U.S. economic readings in the coming days, which are likely to factor into the outlook for interest rates.

A revised reading on first-quarter gross domestic product data is due later on Thursday and is likely to show some resilience in the economy. More closely watched will be PCE price index data, due on Friday. The reading is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices eased about 1% on Wednesday on worries over weak U.S. gasoline demand and economic data that could cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.

U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in May after deteriorating for three straight months amid optimism about the labor market, but worries about inflation persisted and many households expected higher interest rates over the next year.

U.S. Crude stockpiles fell much more than expected last week, the API reported Wednesday, pointing to signs of pick up in energy demand as the summer driving season is underway. The API data also showed that gasoline stockpiles decreased by 452,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 2.0M barrels.

WTI Oil

US 500

U.S. stock index futures fell on Wednesday, extending losses on Wall Street as caution over upcoming cues on interest rates and inflation saw investors turn averse towards equity markets.

Hawkish comments from Fed officials continued to trickle in through the week, as they kept up warnings that inflation will need to fall further before any interest rate cuts. This also saw traders largely price out expectations for a cut in September.

Airline stocks declined, led by American Airlines which declined 13.5% after the company cut its second-quarter profit forecast. Moreover, After the closing bell, shares of Salesforce were down more than 15% as the company reported results and forecast second quarter revenue below estimates.

US 500

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