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US Industrial Production, Housing Market Index

calendar 18/10/2021 - 07:50 UTC

The USD/TRY pair was once again up on Friday and pushed even higher after opening on Monday night. This was the eight trading day in a row when the lira ended up weaker against the greenback, which over that time was by far not every day the best performing currency in the market. The lira weakness can be to some extent possibly attributed to an earlier central bank decision to lower rates by 100 basis points despite strong inflationary pressures, while the replacement of three central bank officials just recently by the president of the country hardly would have instilled confidence among investors.

After a mixed performance over the weekend after reaching close to the $63k level on Friday, Bitcoin prices were seen once again higher by Monday morning moving towards that high again. The total market cap of the crypto market is now estimated to exceed $2.6 trillion, which is quite close to the previous all-time high. Over the past week the performance was quite mixed among different altcoins. While Polkadot is still up by roughly a quarter of its value on a weekly basis, Cardano and Ripple are still in the red with the performance over the weekend being considerably weaker than that of for example Bitcoin and even Ethereum.

On Monday key data is expected to come from the U.S. where September statistics on capacity utilisation, industrial production as well as the most recent Housing Market Index are to be expected. Later at night the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can be expected.


While the EUR/USD pair closed on Friday moderately higher, just above the 1.16-level thanks to the weakness of the dollar, the currency pair was unable to hold on to that by Monday morning when the rate fell as low as 1.1573

Against other majors the common European currency performed mixed with especially the pound sterling clearly outshining the euro with the EUR/GBP pair at the lowest level since February 2020.

Trade balance data from the EU indicated a decline in trade balance surplus in August as imports picked up stronger at 1.6% than exports at 0.3%. US data was overall not too bad with retail sales performance steady at 0.7% growth on a monthly basis in September, while import and export prices showed a growth rate which was slower than anticipated. Import prices still grew by 0.4% on a monthly basis, but this was less than most expected, while export prices growth almost stalled at 0.1% gains that month.



Gold and other precious metals traded overall lower on Friday despite relatively steady rates and a weakened dollar. While on a weekly basis the strong performance towards the start last week was enough to still end the week in the green, the total gains were rather limited as the price at the current level is still significantly lower compared to the position in late August before the rapid sell-off lasting mor than two weeks.

Palladium’s daily performance on Friday with a loss of more than 2.6% was even weaker than gold with the market move undoing a significant part of the gains from Wednesday and Thursday.

Weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the U.S. CFTC on Friday showed an almost unchanged number of speculative net positions in gold futures at 185.5 thousand, compared to 182.6 thousand in the week before.



The oil rally continues with WTI crude oil closing once again higher on Friday, this time above the $82 mark and continuing to move to the upside over the course of Monday night. Natural gas prices meanwhile are continuing to come down with the price seen by Monday morning being the lowest in more than three weeks.

The U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count continued rising, reaching a level of 445, which marks a new record since April 2020.

This week the American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes its weekly statistical bulletin as usual on Tuesday, followed by weekly data on crude oil, gasoline and distillate stockpile changes by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.


US 500

Major equity indices like the US 500 and the US 30 continued to move higher, while the small-cap index US 2000 did not managed to make further advances and closed roughly half a per cent lower on Friday. As it stands the US 500 is not far from the high at the end of September, while at the same time the Volatility Index VIX is trading significantly down compared to the same time a month ago in the continuous future contract.

The recovery in the chip sector (US Semiconductors ETF +0.91%) continued, while financial stocks were also performing quite well (US Financials ETF +1.65%).

Virgin Galactic (-16.69%) was one of the worst performing stocks on Friday. It was reported that the company would postpone the launch of its Unity 23 missing this year due to test results bringing the material strength of some components into question. The company planned to make a break anyway for maintenance and enhancements to be done, but now this break is expected to last until Q4 of next year according to a company announcement.

One of the best-performing stock on Friday was the Chinese EV maker XPeng (+8.39%), while the crypto exchange Coinbase (+8.06%) also performed very well.

The earnings season is starting to take shape as more companies are expected to release their results this week including Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, United Airlines and Philip Morris are releasing their results on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday results from IBM, Verizon, Abbott Laboratories and Tesla can be expected.

US 500

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