flg-icon English (India)
17
Apr

U.K. Annual CPI, BOE’s Bailey and ECB’s Lagarde Speak

calendar 17/04/2024 - 07:46 UTC

The dollar continues to ascend against most major currencies on Tuesday, with the dollar index (USDX) gaining by approximately 0.17% hitting levels seen in November 2023. According to reports, this move could be driven by its safe haven properties, following an escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict as well as recent signs that the Fed’s monetary easing plans might be delayed further.

The impact on interest rate expectations was evident following the recent turn of events in the Middle East as CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated that bets for the first cut to occur in June fell to 15%.

In other news, the two main crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent posted moderate declines despite escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, trading lower by 0.39% and 0.36% respectively on Tuesday. Energy traders remain on edge waiting to see how Israel will respond to the attack while the US is threatening for new sanctions on Iran in an attempt to avoid a further escalation while calling for Israel to show restraint.

In Wall Street, sentiment appears to be stabilizing in the past few sessions, with positive earnings reports being largely offset by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalling that sticky inflation data gave the bank less confidence to cut interest rates thus weighing heavily on equities. Concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East will likely continue to be the main focus for stock markets this week along with several key earnings reports such as Abbott, CROWN CASTLE, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, Las Vegas Sands, Procter & Gamble, American Express and Schlumberger.

Market focus for today shifts to inflation data from the UK as well as speeches from Bank of England governor Bailey and ECB president Lagarde while later in the session, the US report on TIC Long-Term Purchases will be released together with EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair traded between gains and losses on Tuesday and ended the session with minor losses of 0.03%.

On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US economy's performance has been quite robust. Powell further stated that recent data indicates a lack of significant progress on inflation this year and it will take "longer than expected" to achieve the confidence that inflation will get down to the 2% target.

Housing Starts in the US fell 14.7% in March while the US Building Permits dropped 4.3% in February and Industrial Production rose 0.4% MoM in March.

Across the pond, there is growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start lowering interest rates in June due to a weak. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, as safe-haven demand amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset rising expectations of fewer U.S. rate cuts this year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a U.S. Senate panel just over five weeks ago the Fed was "not far" from gaining confidence in inflation falling to the level needed to cut interest rates, but policymakers, investors and outside analysts have lost a bit of faith in that outlook considering a series of strong economic data.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices settled just lower Tuesday, as market participants weighed up potential new U.S. sanctions that could further curb the Tehran's oil exports just as geopolitical tensions continue to simmer as traders await Israel's response to the recent Iranian attack.

The threat of new sanctions on Iran comes after Tehran launched a large-scale drone and missile strike against Israel, raising the risk that could break out into a wider conflict in the Middle East. Israel is weighing up its response to the attack, which is expected to be measures to avoid a further escalation amid calls from its international allies calling for restraint.

U.S. crude stockpiles jumped more than expected last week, the API reported Tuesday, but gasoline inventories dropped pointing to an ongoing recovery in refinery activity amid growing fuel demand. The official government inventory report is due Wednesday.

WTI Oil

US 500

U.S. stock index futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as Wall Street appeared to be steadying after fears of higher-for-longer interest rates sparked a series of steep losses.

Risk appetite remained fragile, especially as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted, while top Federal Reserve officials also reiterated the central bank’s outlook on steady interest rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that recent signs of sticky inflation gave the central bank less confidence to cut interest rates early.

Some positive first-quarter earnings reports also helped support sentiment. Morgan Stanley rose 0.2% in aftermarket trade after clocking a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit. The earnings season is set to continue on Wednesday with Dutch chipmaking major ASML Holding,NV and healthcare giant Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) on tap.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

Want to learn more about CFD trading?

Join iFOREX to get an education package and start taking advantage of market opportunities.

A beginner's e-book A beginner's e-book
$5,000 practice demo account< $5,000 practice demo account
A 12-part video course A 12-part video course
Register now